Magpie Trader

Back...

2007-07-18T21:27:00.000+12:00

It's been a while hasn't it. I took a sabatical from forums and other traders to take stock (scuse the pun). Although I was doing ok, chucking the job in wasn't happening, and personal stuff was making it impossible - also the way I traded I discovered... didn't fit my lifestyle. So, it was time to take a break.

New and good things occurred and are occurring, my style of trading has changed considerably after taking time out and analysing goals and time available. I'm more than happy with the way things are going now. Chucking the job in is still on, but it had to be pushed out a few months.

As time goes on this blog will be attached to www.nzisus.com, a new venture that is being planned.

Good luck to all, and thanks for the all the emails of support and questions as to where the heck I'd got to! You know who you are and it's much appreciated!

True

2006-07-07T01:10:00.000+12:00

"Well, I think the leading cause of financial disablement is the belief that you can rely on the experts to help you. It might, if you know the right expert. For example, if you happen to be Paul Tudor Jones' barber, and he is talking about the market, it might not be a bad idea to listen. Typically, however, these so-called "experts" are not traders. Your average broker couldn't be a trader in a million years. More money is lost listening to brokers than any other way. Trading requires an intense personal involvement. You have to do your own homework, and that is what I advise people to do. (Michael Marcus, from the book Market Wizards, by Jack D. Schwarger) "

9th May 06 (new tack - back again....)

2005-12-01T22:45:00.000+13:00

Many thanks for the comments and those wondering where I'd gone. I don't actually use Skype or MSN much especially when trading as I find it distracting, however any comments or questions I'll try and answer by email or on this blog as best I can.

For various reasons, plus enforced time off, the new tack blog fell by the wayside. What I have been doing is trading when possible... reading a lot and working on the psychology of myself and being disciplined as this has been the major problem for me and has cost too many pips.

Threads that will give you an insight into the way I trade now are below, I primarily take signals off the 4HR chart now and greatly prefer the much reduced screen time involved.
There's some excellent traders out there and they freely share their knowledge on these threads. Whether a novice or expert, you'll definitely learn something either way.

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f46/fibs-journey-easy-kisses-tasteful-butterflies-15089/page60.html

http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/1093-harmonic-trading.html

http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/forums/showthread.php?p=157949#post157949 - MikeFX and Shellcon especially have helped me a great deal here.

Books I'd recommend are:

everything written by Patrick Mikula
all Larry Pesavento's books
Mark Douglas
Bryce Gilmore
Scott Carney
Gann

It's a lot of reading and a lot to digest there, but no one said this was easy ;o)

Currently short eurusd from 2724, SL 2775, looking for 2600...

21/11/05

2005-11-22T12:14:00.000+13:00

Short cable 1.1767, closed at 1.1785. Sold the dummy/head fake quite convincingly.

-36

Long cable 1.1805 closed on a limit at 1.1831

+52

+16 on the day

WE 18/11/05

2005-11-18T12:15:00.000+13:00

Not trading Friday as away.

+400

16/11/05

2005-11-17T12:48:00.000+13:00

Short cable 1.7341 SL 1.7671

edit: SL moved to 1.7315, decided not to take half of original entry

SL moved to 1.7215 this morning
(+252 locked in)

edit2: Stopped out

WE 11th Nov

2005-11-15T13:02:00.000+13:00

+57

WE 4th Nov

2005-11-15T13:01:00.000+13:00

+300

14/11/05

2005-11-15T12:44:00.000+13:00

The cable limit on Friday was triggered, but it failed quite spectacularily, moved SL to breakeven +1 and left it.

+1

Monday:
Went long cable 1.7452 x 2 thinking this could be the promised rise to the heavens for christmas and closed at 1.7465.

+26

Shorted again at 1.7463, took half on a limit at 1.7448 and left the rest to run with SL at BE +1 as it made a C down, left an exit limit at 1.7355 as a double bottom seemed likely and went to bed. Nice way to wake up in the morning.

+15
+108

The COT data is still saying the big boys (and girls) are long. The range is 1.7350 to 1.7500 so will be looking to play that until there's a concerted move in either direction - presumaeably north, but you never know for sure.

11/11/05

2005-11-10T13:24:00.000+13:00

It's my cousin's birthday today - so happy birthday mate, how old is it now? ;o)

With limited charting access only a longer term approach applies so a limit buy on cable at 1.7479. Only going for half the usual trade size so a larger SL in place at 1.7435. To me it looks like a 123 bottom so the usual entry above the '2'

10/11/05

2005-11-10T13:14:00.000+13:00

looks like the net connection and phone is not going to be happening tonight either, they don't know why... So, looking for another provider today

08/11/05

2005-11-08T19:21:00.000+13:00

Long CAD 1.1916 SL 1.1890
The COT data and charts are showing a heavy upward bias. Only gone in for half my usual as it's a previous day high break. Will look to see confirmation on a time stop before an exit.

Short Cable 1.7375 SL 1.7395, bounce off the pivot range and previous days high

edit: The internet and phone went off last night which was pretty handy, so ended up calling the UK on a mobile to change orders. Telecom have sent an engineer out today so with some luck we'll be back on. Wrestled with changing the CAD SL, but it ended up ok at 1.1875. Put a limit exit at 1.1945 due to the pivot and camarilla - the cam level was an H4 breakout area and price either punches through and keeps going or spikes through, it actually went to the 1.980 area and returned south with a couple of hourly hammers. I didn't want the risk due to the lack of charts, hence the limit exit.

The cable trade was interesting in that there's heavy support around the 1.7350. Closed half the order at 1.7372 and left the rest. Moved the SL out to 1.7405 and put a limit exit at 1.7350. Any winnings were probably halved as I phoned every 15 minutes to see what was happening.

+ 29 CAD
+28 cable (+3 and +25)

01/11/05

2005-11-01T21:21:00.000+13:00

Still long 115.71 USDJPY from yesterday
--SL moved to 116.42
+24 (+71 locked in)

closed at 116.49
+102

------------------------------------

long EURJPY 139.86 SL 139.63

edit: 1 taken at 139.96 SL moved to BE +1
Stopped out +11 - read the wrong camarilla pivot figure and now realised it was H4 it was breaking not H3... missed another entry now

-----------------------------------------------

Short cable 1.7710 SL 1.7733
edit: 1 taken at 1.7695 SL moved to BE +1
stopped out +16

Short 1 cable 1.7685, broken the low of the 1-2-3 SL 1.7720. Off to bed so limited risk. Looking initially for 1.7600 TP, then 1.7500 become a support area.

closed this morning at 1.7633 as TP missed by a few pips.

+52

New tack

2005-11-01T12:11:00.000+13:00

In a couple of weeks the blog will be changing tack from a trading point of view - I'm going to go on a journey of increased trading discipline. I have my system that I'm happy with, my money management is adequate but needs longer term 'living with it' analysis. So, Although i'll be trading normally, I'll also be trading another account with a very small starting budget that will teach me the value of trading in a very disciplined manner in order to not affect margin or put the account through too much strain. The figure is yet to be decided and will be in pounds, it'll be with Deal4free (UK spreadbeting company) and i'll post a screen shot of results at the end of every day traded.
My intention with is exercise is to quite simply learn more, especially the intricacies of money management in relation to the signals that the system generates. For example, the signals are in the process of being graded for profitability (from a historical view point) and this will be looked into with a view to clearing some of the greyer areas. Effectively this will be my live thesis on trading, how I understand it and proof for the future. Trades will be documented in detail with a view to provide a document over time that will provide a concise framework from a trading signal and related money management point of view.
It will also force me stay away from overtrading for good, due to lack of funds in the account. Over trading is my main problem and although it's reduced by a considerable margin it raised it's ugly head recently and put a serious dent in the profits.
It's set up at Magpie trader - a new tack

31/10/05

2005-10-31T22:44:00.000+13:00

Long USDJPY 115.71 SL 115.51

edit: one taken at 115.95 SL moved to 115.78
+24 (+7 locked in)

--SL moved to 115.88
+24 (+17 locked in)

--SL moved to 116.08
+24 (+37 locked in)

--SL moved to 116.26

+24 (+55 locked in)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
short cable1.7806 SL 1.7828

edit: one taken at 1.7779 SL moved to 1.7805
+25 (+1 locked in)

--SL moved to 1.7796
+25 (+10 locked in)

Profit taken at 1.7696
+135

Monthly Results

2005-10-31T13:04:00.000+13:00

Results since beginning of blog as the blog was intended to help me focus my attention more, stop over trading and produce more consistent results.

2005

September +182
October + 735

WE 28/10/05

2005-10-31T12:57:00.000+13:00

Weekly result

+76

27/10/05

2005-10-27T20:45:00.000+13:00

Short eurjpy 139.71 Aup rubberband trade. Stop and reverse at 139.97
stopped out and reversed
-52
long 139.97 SL 139.75

closed at 139.79
-36

Long cable at 1.7867 - A up and yesterday's high broken. SL 1.7837

closed cable at 1.7872 - it's taking too long and there's a big fat shooting star

+10

the Greenspan speech to day may be holding everything up, don't know, off to read the Logical trader again.

If any readers were wondering if this blog was real, the last couple of days should prove it. It was all going so well for a few weeks there - seem to have lost it - off to find it again.

In the mean time cable has a long bias for the day, so will wait for any retrace for re-entry.

-76 for the day

Philosophical psychology and Phillips Dog

2005-10-27T12:44:00.000+13:00

The quotes below are by a trader, 'Phillips Dog', who gives his words of wisdom most days on spreadtrade2win.

"The more success you achieve, the greater your self-efficacy, and the more likely you'll be able to trade in a greater variety of market conditions and persist until you achieve enduring profitability."
he also says:

"When you are dogged by a ruff trade, relax and learn to be flatulent. It won't move the market but it will move everyone else."

As all the pictures of him are a dog in front of his trading screens, I'm not entirely sure that it's not the dog who actually trades?! Anyway....

Yesterday was a humbling experience for me as it's been nearly 5 months since I've overtraded and gone on what I 'thought was going to happen' or 'pushing the envelope of possibilities' and not waited for a signal and not followed my strategy and plan. It cost me dearly. The day before had been one of my most profitable days in 2 years of currency trading (ironically the others occurred in that fateful first few weeks where I was the best trader in the world and my seat was soon to be parted from my flying pants).

Trading is 70% psychological and I know this (I've read the books!) and have been following this knowledge, re reading my Mark Douglas books and improving since I read them about 6 months ago, this was one of the main reasons I started this blog.

To give you the reader (if you've made it this far) some personal history, I've been blessed with picking new things up quite quickly, but.... when I was teaching myself to swim as a youngster (the woman who tried to teach me was a dragon and I didn't go back), I got over confident in my abilities after a few days, got cramp and almost drowned.
When I learned to ride a bike, once I was away and stable I went too fast, lost control and ploughed straight into a wall - I still have the scar 28 years later.
My second day on the ski slopes of Austria, on a school trip, I was imbued with the spirit of Franz klammer (the slightly older generation will know who he is) and proceeded to go into a 'tuck' at the top of a big run. After some exhilerating moments, to my surprise, the run ran out half way down with a weave left then right into a path along the side of the mountain. Not having any real stopping capabilities the weave left was handled with an attempted 'snowplough', but the weave right was very tight - unfortunately beyond the path were enormous fir trees growing up the side of the mountain and below the path. Looking back i'm not sure if it was such a good thing, but I stayed conscious as my momentum was abruptly halted by the trunk of a large fir about 30 ft up the trunk and about 20 ft over the side of the path, from here I proceeded gravitationally through branches and snow until the ground came up to hit me at an angle that continued my run down the mountain until another trunk got in the way. That was only a hair line fracture and some bruising.
When I started Shodokan (Tomiki) Aikido (a defensive martial art with lots of rolls and throws) I got a bit over confident with how far I could roll soon after starting, landed badly and tore the the top two abdominal muscles just under the ribs - very sore and lasts for about 6 weeks.

Even I'm beginning to notice a pattern. To say the least i have a trait that makes me run before I can walk - the trait then goes on to scare the crap out of me or injure me before I reign myself in and look upon it with a calmer attitude, then improve in a (semi) orderly manner. It's not just the situations above that this pattern has presented itself, it's pretty much with everything i've done from about the age of 4, I'm 33 now and I'm trying to change it. I believe though it is a good trait to have, but unless it's controlled it's going to have painful consequences.

As you may imagine my trading career has followed a similar line with many 'off the path, 30ft up a tree trunk' moments. However, I love trading, love learning and love spending time with my family and friends and having the time for Aikido and outdoor persuits - so, the goal of trading for a living provides for all the main loves of my life. Having been through all the pain that occurred in the first half of my trading career and having battled with my 'personality trait' all this time meant that revisiting it all again last night provided the impetus to write what you're reading now. I've known about this trait for years, become more aware of it in the last few years but really only started analysing it since learning to trade and reading Mark Douglas. After reading Mark Douglas I've talked about it with friends, but this is the first time I've written about and looked at it objectively with a view to really use it's assets but reign in it's failures. Maybe I'm just growing up?! - then again losing money has has always been something I don't like...

There's loads of strategies out there, you can learn from any number of free strategies with some basic trading knowledge in about an hour - use it mechanically and you'd make money. However, trading is an art form that presents an almost infinite number of possibilities at any moment of the day, not just in a trade as price can only go up or down, but what you're going to to if it goes up, then down, then up again - it's this that requires your personal psychology and patience to be like a thoroughbred race horse - learn to objectively observe what your perception of reality is at any given moment and to work and improve on it everyday. If it sounds esoteric to you and you're making money trading, then good luck to you, more than likely you're losing though. However, it's only you that can make your chosen strategy come to life.

Good luck!

Magpie

26/10/05

2005-10-26T19:57:00.000+13:00

Short CAD at 1.1757 SL 1.1780
-46

stop and reverse at 1.1776. SL 1.1760. TP 1.1800 (headfake - joy!)
-32
stop and reverse again with 1... at 1.1759 SL 1.1780

closed 1.1777 as it's rebroken the TL - leaving this alone for today...
-18

Some inspired CAD trading today.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

long cable at 1.7845. SL 1.7822
-46

cable stop and reverse at 1.7818

taken half at 1.7799, SL moved to 1.7812 > SL moved to 1.7787

out at 1.7783, the pivot and the 38% fib seem to be holding

+54

short at 1.7778. SL1.8000 - closed at 1.7774 - not moved in the alloted time so exited. There could be a shake out south still before the major up trend continues, so I've got a limit buy at 1.7825 SL 1.7795 as I'm off to bed.
+8

-80 for the day and thanks for the lessons.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first couple of trades (the ones with a minus next to them) above is over confidence after yesterday and not taking time. Just sticking to the ACD method or a simple breakout strategy would have put me positive instead of jumping in thinking I knew better - especially for the cable trade. The CAD trade was a TL break south and the trend is south, but now price has had two closes in an hour back above the TL... and now it's broken back below it... should have stuck with the first trade - must have been due to pay for a market lesson today.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Long cable 1.7771 with 1. SL 1.7742 - now off to bed

WE 21/10/05

2005-10-26T12:49:00.000+13:00

+247

25/10/05

2005-10-25T19:56:00.000+13:00

Long cable at 1.7656 SL 1.7628

edit: Took half at 1.7708 and moved stop to 1.7675 for rest

+52

closed out at 1.7693 to look for re-entry if the down TL is breached.

+37

Long cable again at 1.17702

edit: SL moved to BE +1

edit: both taken at 1.7751

+98

Long eurjpy at 138.45 SL 138.25

half taken at 138.65 SL moved to 138.59 TP 139.20 - edit SL moved to 138.75

+20

Short cable at 1.7752 with 1. SL 1.7770.

Stopped out -18 (greedy and top picking - never works)

Total today: 217 locked in - TP of eurjpy may be hit.

edit: stopped out on the eurjpy trade, as hindsight is great - I should have left the stop under the last retrace and would have ended up with another 70 pips. Lesson learnt again.

24/10/05

2005-10-24T21:16:00.000+13:00

Short cable at 1.7671. SL 1.17701

It's looking like the attempt has been made to high, but the up TL has been broken and the major trend is down. Looking for Fridays low to start with.

edit: didn't like the way it stalled as it should have plummeted to my limit for 25, move SL to +1 and then stopped out.

+1

Missed the blatantly obvious CAD long trade as it's Monday and I was looking at other ideas, so to put into force what I've been looking at as I'm off to bed, a (demo) sell stop on euro at 1.1924, SL1.1945. Limit exit half at 1.1899 then SL moved to BE+1.

21/10/05

2005-10-21T13:42:00.000+13:00

Got up this morning (end of the US session) and prior to heading to work had a look at my ACD setups and the Euro was breaking out of it's lows, through an A up, broken pivot, broken 3 day pivot, MACD rising, ADX on the 30 min chart looked like a strong buy too.

long euro 1.2009

Took 25 at 1.2034 and the rest is at breakeven +1

+25

20/10/05

2005-10-20T22:32:00.000+13:00

Closed CAD trade at 1.1760, according to the COT data we could be at the bottom here and the technicals are starting to back this up on the higher time frames. I've taken profit as there's an UP TL on the 4HR chart and MACD divergence.
However without the COT data I'd be itching for a TL break. There's going to be one isn't there, but I've got my pips and I'm happy.

Could this be the bottom? I've been wrong so many times you could make a quilt out of it. However I'll be keeping an eye on this one.

In actual fact the COT data for pretty much every currency is at an extreme.

Trending times ahead hopefully. Big fat trends till new year would suit me nicely ;o)

+39

19/10/05

2005-10-19T20:07:00.000+13:00

short cable 1.7463

closed after some madness at 1.7456 - should have taken 30 on a limit, so limits will be input when the trade goes on instead of getting a cup of tea and missing the move... Didn't get the tea as alarms were going off.

+7

Seems to be a real scrap between the bulls and the bears. Divergence on the daily chart north and two down trend lines have been challenged, broken, then failed and are now being broken?!

Standing aside as I'm confused as to direction.

edit: now short at 1.7452. SL 1.7472. Limit for half at 1.7427 while I head for that tea now.

..and stopped out

-20

short CAD at 1.1799 - SL 1.1822

Reply to forex2stay comment

2005-10-19T12:51:00.000+13:00

Hi forex2stay,
thanks for checking in! yup the pip average has increased nicely actually over the last few weeks. I think the blog has helped a great deal from a 'focus/discipline' point of view as a personal journal prior to that was good but not as 'real'. Also the ACD method as a way of monitoring and (sometimes) entry into the market has improved things as it automatically filters the 6 majors I look at.
I've got them set up on one screen in MT4 with the ACD, 3 day pivot indicator, daily pivots, yesterday's hi/low, a couple of EMAs and MACD on a 30 min chart (they all come up automatically), so at a glance I can see what is looking like a good set up. From there it's a check on the higher TFs to see if anything could scupper the trade, then if not head to the lower timeframes and look for an entry. Prior to this I was really just sticking to cable, which provides signals every day but not all of them are profitable or as profitable as I'd like. So after some frustration I started looking at the 6 pairs I tend to stick with and rapidly improved, but soon after 'too much info' took over and the results were mixed again.
Since I've had the MT4 ACD et al indicator set up I'm cherry picking the most (historically) profitable signals across the 6 pairs, then move to my other system signals to look for good entries. I've ranked my signals from 1 to 5, 1 being the best, which means with more options (no. of pairs) to look at the more '1' and '2' ranked trades become available.
I've also recently come across the FX wizard strategy which is by a guy called Rob, it's free at www.spreadtrade2win.com, essentially it's a standalone strategy which is profitable on its own. The main thing I took from it was the use of ADX which is an indicator I've not really understood very well before and hence ignored - now though, I love it as it's refined my previous indicator signals which were mainly support/resistance trend lines, MACD and EMA based. I still use the others, but ADX refines the signals I find and not only helps to increase the probability of the trade going in my favour, but gives the confidence to pull the trigger slightly sooner and then 'add in' (new strategy coming in next week) when MACD, other signals and ACD confirm, and ADX looks 'certain' on the lower - then higher time frames .
I've been profitable on a weekly basis for the last 4 months and profitable on a monthly basis for the last 8. However it's only the last 6 weeks that I've hit my weekly target of 112 pips (which is what it'll take to make me a full time trader in 6 months and 2 weeks and counting!). I like working in IT mainly because of the people, it's just the 40 hours a week, politics, hypocrisy, intellectually challenged bosses and the lack of daylight I'm not keen on...

I'm not making as many pips as you so please ignore the next bit if it sounds a bit like teaching yer granny to suck eggs, but... maybe the ACD method or something like it might help you with a 'quick glance' filter across more pairs, that doesn't produce the 'too much information' feeling. I can see in about 5-10 minutes now which pair or pairs I'm going to concentrate on, then move to the lower timeframe charts for that one or two to look for entry signals.

I've really only been using this set up for the last month in it's present form and I'm tweaking and refining the edges, but for the first time, ever, in my trading career there isn't that small knot fear that what looks like a great signal will turn to mush because I missed something obvious prior to the trade going on, it also shows me when i'm wrong and it's time to get out sooner. Of course I'll be wrong at times but the fear has (almost) gone.
One thing I've also learnt about myself in the last 6 months is I'm not naturally gifted at trading or at the discipline side of things (the ego has taken a righteous bashing over the last 18 months ;o) ), however the set up I've got now is simple, to my brain at least, it show's high grade signals or keeps me out and doesn't actually leave much room for 'creative' (and usually costly) thinking.
I suppose this has been written more to myself as I've not really vocalised it all before since implementing it, but it may help in some small way - that's the hope anyway.

cheers

magpie

18/10/05

2005-10-18T20:51:00.000+13:00

Short cable 1.7506

edit: half taken at 1.7464, SL moved to 1.7496

+42

SL moved to 1.7469, limit exit put in for 1.7395

The monthly cable chart is looking like a plunge over the next few months to the 1.6600 level is looking on the cards as thats the 50% fib from the June 2001 low to December 2004 high. We're curretnly at the 38% fib and things are looking like a 50% test is next. If your going on holiday to the US go now!

edit: SL taken out (perhaps it's the bottom and the 38% fib will hold?)

+37

total +79

WE 14/10/05

2005-10-17T23:55:00.000+13:00

+192

17/10/05

2005-10-17T21:54:00.000+13:00

Short cable at 1.7671

Took half at 1.7641 and stop moved to 1.7661

+30

closed at 1.7584

+87

A favourite pic 1

2005-10-14T13:34:00.000+13:00

Leader of the 'free' world and yes the phone is the wrong way round...

check the picture in the background too, awwww that's nice.

Got he pic from http://www.spreadtrade2win.com/

13/10/05

2005-10-13T12:49:00.000+13:00

USDCAD - Took half out on the limit at 1.1727 and I've moved the rest to breakeven +1.

+20

EURJPY - I was keeping my stop under the pivot range during the US session in case it made an attempt at it, but now in the Asian session i've moved my stop to 137.30 (+5)

edit closed CAD trade at 1.1707

+40

EURJPY - Moved stop to 137.35
CLosed at 137.57

+27

Short cable at 1.7450
closed cable 1.7466 - sold a classic head fake - not much you can do when everything in the world says down especially after a gap down and the first thought is that price is going to close the gap... my stop sell (i thought) was supposedly positioned to take that in to account as the next pivot was 20 odd pips away.

-16

Cable's looking undecided as to whether it's an ACD rubberband trade or and actual A down. Sitting aside till a signal's made.

Metatrader is down so I'm on deal4free's charts and feeling a little lost. Scrabbling to get pivots done manually indicators sorted and ACD manually set up correctly also. Should have been prepared for that, so will get that done and saved tonight for future use.

Cable - Ended up scalping when I thought it was off north, then thought it was off north again but my time stop kicked in. +1 and -7

-6

Todays news is at 1.30pm UK time is obviously effecting things after the initial excitement of the London opening.

Off to bed

12/10/05

2005-10-12T22:49:00.000+13:00

The CAD trade turned out be a head fake and I turned out to be headed for the place where the majority of top and bottom callers go... the history books ;o)

Anyway I took 20 at 1.800, then got stopped out for the rest at 1.1785

+25

Cable today:

Short at 1.7417, got out at 1.7414

+3

Then long cable at 1.7445, and took profit at the pivot at 1.7472. Missed the intial run up by leaving the room for 5 minutes...

+27

Now short the CAD at 1.1740 SL 1.1761 - as I write this it's trying to take out my stop and has so far missed it by a pip.

edit: stopped out

-21

Long EURJPY 137.30 SL 137.10. 1st TP 137.50, 2nd TP 138.00

edit: 1st TP hit - moved stop to 137.25, just under 3 day pivot range as this has bounced off the 50% fib, broken the 4HR TL north and MACD and ADX are confirming a change in trend on 30 min chart (strong) and just confirmed on 1Hr chart.

+20

Short CAD again at 1.1747. SL1.1768. 1st TP 1.1727

11/10/05 continued

2005-10-11T21:19:00.000+13:00

Long euro at 1.2024 - divergence and tweezers at a pivot, small SL at 1.2006 as it could go pear shaped rapidly. TP is either the pivot or the 1.2050 area.

closed at 1.2038

+14

Long USDCAD at 1.1780 SL 1.1760. 1st TP 1.1835, 2nd TP 1.1950, this could turn out to be a nice retrace to the 1.2000 area. 2nd major divergence on the weekly and monthly chart since Dec 2003, it's the start of the month and the first week was positive, so statistically speaking this month has a good chance ending higher. It could be the bottom even - ok... I'm calling a bottom then ;o)

11/10/05

2005-10-11T20:13:00.000+13:00

Closed USDJPY at 114.10, the spinning top and then fall was too much for me to stay in

+29

Got stopped out yesterday of EURJPY

-23

USDCAD got out after 90 mins as nothing was happening

-3

+3 Total

10/10/05

2005-10-10T21:36:00.000+13:00

Aussie trade from last week stopped out for:
+14

Long USD JPY 113.81 SL113.55

Short stop at USDCAD 1.1742 -it may rise through the pivot, but real resistance at 1.1785 area and don't want to miss the short.

EURJPY is looking like a long, but will wait for a proper signal before entering.

edit: just gone long EURJPY at 138.13 SL137.90

It's a new month and the euro and cable have put in a positive week last week, which statistically gives an indication that this month will end positively. The euro in this session has made an A up and gone through the daily pivot and is also currently above the 3 day pivot range. Cable is yet to follow through and is buffering the daily and 3 day pivots. EMAs are up but both have put in the projected highs for today. Will sit aside till a signal appears.

07/10/05

2005-10-08T01:04:00.000+13:00

not gone to bed...

Aussie just made a C down - short at 0.7575, SL 0.7596, 1st TP 0.7544, then trailing stop of 20 pips.

Cable is looking to either hold the 50% fib/bottom 3 day pivot range, or collapse. Put a sell stop at 1.17665, SL 1.7690. 1st TP 1.7635 then trailing stop of 25 pips.

now off to bed

edit: Aussie still in play, SL moved to BE +1
Cable +30, then stopped out at 1.7597 +68

+98

Cable and other pairs now below the 3 day pivot and daily pivot so bias is south, but they are al around a fib resisance point so wait and see.

WE 07/10/05

2005-10-08T00:43:00.000+13:00

+189 (was +91 till last trade on Friday night when Cable came in with a nice fall below the 3 day pivot range, the last cable trade was a 'juicy apple trade' - see below)

Profitable again and that's good, there are still improvements in my trade selections to come though. It's like going to the grocer to buy an apple, you pick up and look at a few apples, discard the bruised ones, the ones with holes in, the ones that aren't red enough for your tastes - then you pick up your choice, give it a rub on your jumper and off you go to put your money on the counter.

If I can keep this in my head next week there can only be an improvement as I'm overtrading and taking the occasional bruised apple.

07/10/05

2005-10-07T20:47:00.000+13:00

short eurjpy138.79 SL138.09

short eurusd1.2155 SL1.2183

edit: closed eurjpy - not the best trade I've even made as it was right into strong resistance - been a long week and it was a mistake to take the trade. I was lucky to come out with a positive result, should have also taken 10pips when they presented themselves.

+2

edit closed euro 1.2155

0

NFP holding everything up no doubt.

This week seems to have totally bypassed the european session (the session I trade) with the Aisan session taking the main moves and the US taking the rest. Hopefully things will change next week and maybe a trend I can catch from the London open would be nice.

Keep on fishing

06/10/05 cont'd

2005-10-06T23:50:00.000+13:00

Long USDCAD 1.1791, SL 1.1766

Short AUDUSD 0.7589 SL 0.7603

edit: USD CAD half taken at 1.1811, SL moved to breakeven +1

+20

stopped out

+1

edit 2:

AudUSD half out of limit at 0.7569 and stopped out on rest for BE +1

+20 +1

06/10/05

2005-10-06T12:03:00.000+13:00

eurjpy stopped out:

-30 (looks just like the 'A' example in the usdjpy chart below, should have noticed the bollinger band was expanding north plus it was a symmetrical triangle in an uptrend, plus the pivot hadn't actually gone lower than the previous day', it was just in it's range... thankyou market for letting me pay for another lesson, gratefully received.)

audusd

+25 so far, took half at 0.7565 and stop moved to breakeven +1.

usdjpy

stop moved to breakeven +1

Either way the strat seems to be on course so far.

edit: audusd stopped out
+1
+26 total

usdjpy stopped out
+1

total combined

-3

05/10/05

2005-10-06T00:36:00.000+13:00

Long USDJPY at 113.84 SL 113.61 - 1st target 114.30, the rest will be move ot breakeven when target hit.

3 day pivot strategy with MACD

2005-10-06T00:08:00.000+13:00

As can be seen from 'A', it's not a 'given' that the price will continue, but used in conjunction with ACD day signals, or your own system, or even just basic trend lines, the alert to reverse is there - and if it doesn't materialise, then the trend will continue for a few days at least.
This strategy revolves around a day trading strategy providing the entry signal and the 3 day pivot range and MACD keeping the trade going.
I use a combination of bollinger bands across all time frames. the 8, 17, 34, 68, 170 EMAs, historical support and resistance, MACD (settings 9,19,6), chart patterns, fibs, the ACD method (Mark Fisher, who wrote the book 'The Logical Trader') and the FXovereasy strategy very kindly released by Perky.
Money management for this strategy revolves around a multi lot initial entry that takes 30 to 50 pips on a limit initially depending on the pair, then moving the stop to break even then below the previous days 3 day pivot range. When indications are that the trend is coming to an end I'll either scale out or close entirely (my broker doesn't use trailing stops).

This chart shows the USDJPY pair, but there's a long term trend line just under the last bar, plus there's divergence north on the 30 min chart, so I'll sit and wait for confirmation, which will probably be tomorrow now. If price does stay above the 3 day pivot range then the up trend will continue, price is at long term resistance currently and seems to be stalling.

3 day pivot strat audusd

2005-10-06T00:02:00.000+13:00

audusd for OKL

05/10/05

2005-10-05T20:39:00.001+13:00

sell eurjpy 136.06 SL 136.36

sell audusd 0.7590 SL 0.7720

Both have broken 3 day pivot south and MACD on the 4 HR has turned and is pointing down.

2005-10-05T20:39:00.000+13:00

sell eurjpy 136.06 SL 136.30

sell audusd 0.7590 SL 0.7720

Both have broken 3 day pivot south and MACD on the 4 HR has turned and is pointing down.

04/10/05 cont'd

2005-10-04T22:29:00.000+13:00

short CAD at 1.1671 SL 1.1691

Move euro stop to 1.1947

edit: closed CAD 1.1684

-13

closed Jappy at 114.28

+20

closed euro 1.1929

-11

04/10/05

2005-10-04T21:38:00.000+13:00

Still long the Jappy from yesterday SL moved to 114.13.

short the Euro from 1.1918, SL 1.1940

03/10/05

2005-10-03T20:42:00.000+13:00

short cable at 1.7575, SL 1.7598

TL break south, in a downtrend, with resistance at the bottom of the pivot range. Low risk trade with a stop above the spinning top.

edit: blogger was down, so couldn't update at the time, closed Cable trade at 1.7527

+48

Shorted cable again at 1.7536 and got stopped out at 1.7555

-19

Went long the jappy at 114.08 (currently 114.28) on an A up in an up trend and using the 3 day pivot as the stop. Looking for this trade to continue for a few days.

WE 30/09/05

2005-09-30T21:05:00.000+12:00

+119

29/09/05

2005-09-29T21:40:00.000+12:00

short cable 1.7654 SL 1.7671

edit: closed at 1.7665

-11

Long eurjpy

2005-09-29T00:17:00.000+12:00

long eurjpy 136.07 SL 135.77.

1st target 136.45
2nd target 136.70

A up broken through pivot. TL support. MACD crossing north. Down TL broken. FXOE confirming.

edit: closed at 136.24

+17

Long yen

2005-09-28T22:06:00.000+12:00

Long at 113.20 on an A up, pivot broken north. Tight stop at 113.00

closed at 113.05

-15

29/09/05 cont'd

2005-09-28T21:38:00.000+12:00

euro stopped out at 1.2016

+13

Aussie stopped out at 1.7580

-1

WE 23/09/05

2005-09-28T20:49:00.000+12:00

-12

Been getting into the ACD method a lot more last week and trading took a back seat. Think I needed the rest away from it anyway.

28/09/05

2005-09-28T20:35:00.000+12:00

Shorted euro at 1.2029 -was at projected high and had put in a 1-2-3, then tried again and put in a triple top. Looking for a round number touch at 1.2000 - then will hold and see if it's broken.

shorted Aussie 0.7579 - was a projected high and had put in a 1-2-3

27/09/05

2005-09-27T22:52:00.000+12:00

Not been blogging so far this week as I've been backtesting and really getting into the ACD system as well as going over most of my own stuff again. I'm pretty impressed with ACD and the other info Mark Fisher and his company have is also pretty interesting (the Nymex symposium videos are good too). His book is well presented and concise also.

So far this week I've used it as a confirmation signal on a USDCAD trade yesterday:

+39

It got me out of a EUR JPY trade today for -22, where I reversed at 135.66, some profits were taken at 136.01 and the rest is put to breakeven +1 as I'm heading to bed soon.

-22

35 +1

I'm also short the euro from 1.2027, SL 1.2055. Got a limit to exit set at 1.1997. Should have taken the usdjpy trade though as it's set up was better.

edit: closed eurjpy at 136.16 (projected daily high) so total is 50pips (didn't go to bed...)

edit 2: euro trade - half taken at 1.2010, rest moved to breakeven +1
17 + 1

Total so far this week (not including the full euro trade yet)

+84

edit 3: closed euro trade at 1.2003, think I was a bit brave/greedy thinking it would hit 1.1997. It may very well continue but there's some stiff resistance there and waiting for a c0uple of pips when bed is calling is daft.

+30

-------------------------------------------------------------
Total so far this week:
+96 (updated with euro closed trade)
-------------------------------------------------------------

put a small buy limit at 135.55 on the eurjpy SL 135.15

Euro 21/09/05

2005-09-21T19:33:00.000+12:00

I haven't seen a decent 1-2-3 top for a while on the 15 min chart, but today provided a classic. Price is at the projected daily high, a round number and resistance form the gap down from monday. There's also been a TDTL break with a projected target of the 1.2135 area. All in all there are 4 things (a fairly major confluence of events) all pointing south.

Shorted at 1.2199 and will take some profit at 1.2175 and leave the rest to run to the projected low of 1.2137. I'll look again as price nears the projected low as that's the ADR, but price could easily seek out the 1.2115.

My new toy is the ACD system, so confirmation by that for the euro trade would be nice. Cable is putting in a 'rubber band' trade south, which also bodes well for the euro trade. Any trades that appear over the next couple of weeks will probably be on the demo acct.

Just had an 'A up' on the looney, so will wait for a retrace and/or next bar to see what to do next.

edit: FXOE system, although the Shi channel is pointing north is putting in a short trade signal, with a bottom channel tartget of 1.2135. That's 5 signals for south. ACD system is looking to agree ina bar's time hopefully.

edit2: What can you say other than it was dead wrong.... Thought the gap resistance would have been stronger? oh well, trading the chart and not 'what you think' is mostly better financially.

Either way long now from 1.2221 - not sure where it's going north though as the 1 hour bolly is looming in about 15 pips, so half profits will be taken around the 1.2235 area and the rest moved to break even.

-22

edit 3: took all profits at 1.2231, there's just too much resistance there - as the bias is long now I'll wait for a retrace before re-entry.

+10

Yen next week 19/09/05

2005-09-18T18:17:00.000+12:00

Positives:
The first area of resistance has been broken.
8EMA has crossed the 17 and 34 north.
Support was held at the 38% bolly.
The top bolly resistance is at 113.35 and price has hit and bounced off the centre bolly.
RSI has broken the 60 barrier and is heading north.
From a weekly perspective the major down TL was broken at the end of March first week in April.

Negatives:
2nd and 3rd TL resistance are yet to be broken.
Previous resistance is at 111.60.

All in all everything looks set for a north move to at least the 113 area if 111.60 can be beaten - if it holds then 109 is the first target.

Euro next week 19/09/05 >

2005-09-18T17:57:00.000+12:00

Positives: There's hisotrically been support around the 1.2150-2200 level.
The 50% fib is currently holding.
Price is sitting at the middle bolly line.

Negatives:
The euro has broken the two major up TLs and is currently in a down trend.
The 8 and 17 EMAs have crossed south and RSI has broken support.

Looking at the hourly, there's MACD divergence signalling a north move, but MACD is currently below the zero line.
EMAs are down.
But the week ended on an upturn. There was also a bottom boly band touch on friday -1.2320 is initial resistance, a significant move above will signal a continuation of the uptrend to at least the 1.2550 area.

Cable next week > 19/09/05

2005-09-17T17:57:00.000+12:00

This year seems to have gone fast?...

Cable's at an interesting point right now (although the chart isn't loading?,will try later) -

Positives:
right at the bottom of the channel
Hedge funds and small specs (you and me) are heading long -all the while the big dogs are slowly unwinding their long positions.
Price is in the top half of the daily bolly with the centre line about 60 pips south of current price.
At the major down trend 61% fib support, with most recent uptrend 76% fib 30 pips south of current price.

Possible failure points are the failure of the RSI TLs to hold and the fact that in the major down trend from April 05 it was only a 61% retrace. The next major support level is 1.7820, then 1.7629, then 1.6743

Probably long, but a break of the channel means 1.7820 is next.

German election on Monday, no idea what sort of effect that's going to have.

WE 16/09/05

2005-09-17T14:27:00.000+12:00

Weekly result is:

-5

I've had much worse weeks prior to this blog but this week definitely showed the 'system' works, but the user requires some re-programming. Although this used to be a fairly regular occurence it's been a good 6 weeks since this occured in all it's glory (whic is an improvement). A trending market is no problem for me or the system (although there is room for improvement by the user...) and usually puts me into a state of how easy this is and how great I am at it... but a ranging market gives me problems psychologically, which affects me prior to getting into a trend - although the system backtested and forward tested works very well. Like I mentioned in an earlier post the 'Royal Flush' of 'user' failure raised it's ugly head this week, but gave me the impetus to just follow the system towards the end of the week, although I got out too early on the final Friday trade. The move from cable to the euro also helped I think as cable has been far too spikey putting my system's money management of a 30 pip stop under stress - mainly due to getting in too late, even by half a bar, can mean 15+ pips away from where my proper entry should have been. it's also been putting me under stress too which has meant rash and hasty decisions that have cost.
The long term average for the life of this blog is about 25% under achieving right now, but sticking to the system with regular profits in a ranging market and waiting for a trend to rectify things is what is required. The long term goal is 112 pips a week (the low end of the average weekly total when back and fwd tested over a year).

I'm still tweaking and simplifying the odd thing as time goes by, not just with the system, but with how I mentally deal with pulling the trigger, not pulling the trigger etc (does it ever end?). I've definitely learnt a great deal this week and the trading paradigm of it being 20% system 80% psychology has rung very true. Although I've been doing this a year part time and almost a year full time at 14 hour days (and stocks for 3 years prior to that), I still feel there's a great deal more to learn about my 'trading self' than there is about my system - simply because the system works, it's me that buggers it up at times.

A great article by Soultrader can be found here:
The learning cycle for a newbie trader

Personally I reckon I keep bouncing between stage 3 and 4, then back down to 1 and 2 occasionally. Roll on stage 5!

On a trading note I'm going to start from Monday really examining the other pairs for possible trade set ups prior to London open, as I've got four what you call 'triple A' setups, that rarely fail - so instead of sticking with the one pair the daily analysis will set alerts for other pairs setting up for these four if available- which in turn should increase the probability of success. The reason I've not done this before is that some of the trader's I've been in contact with that are consistently profitable stuck to learning a single pair until they knew it inside out. Most diversified after a time looking for 'their' preferred setups across the pairs, some stayed with one or two pairs (Usually cable and swissy). I know the euro pretty well now, hence the move to cable, which is running at just over even. As I mentioned earlier cable's too stressy for me so diversifying into the less volatile pairs will reap more consistent profits in relation to how much risk I'm prepared to take.
Actually realising now how much money management stress I'm prepared to put myself under and the level of profit I'm happy to take has been a leap forward and taken many months to solidify in my mind.
Trading has so many areas that need to be in sync with each other before regular profits week in week out seem to occur - I reckon I've had probably 3 weeks in my trading career where everything has clicked together and I've ended the week saying I've made no mistakes and it was all pretty much in the 'zone'.

Christchurch is really nice today (saturday), but we're meant to get a 'super storm' on Monday/Tuesday with up to 2 metres of snow in the mountains and deep snow down to the coast. We shouldn't hopefully flood being 150m up?! Mind you the ski field owners are pleased!

Have a good weekend

"Learning is like rowing upstream; not to advance is to fall back"

closed euro

2005-09-16T21:06:00.000+12:00

Closed out at 1.2268 - divergence and oversold on the 5 minute, time to get out.

+16

Going to sit out till the US session or a signal for a long now.

edit - typical I got out when there was another 20 pips in the trade (as I sit here now), the target was the pivot 1.2235 and the hourly uptrend line at least 1.2242.

edit 2 - Price hit 1.2200, with a stall at 1.2235 - listening to my own analysis rather than emotional responses to corrections has been proven to be a lot more profitable over time.

16/09/05

2005-09-16T19:01:00.000+12:00

Short Euro at 1.2284

At major EMA, bolly resistance (hourly) looking for 1.2250 - but price projection is around the central pivot at 1.2235

closed euro short

2005-09-16T01:12:00.000+12:00

closed on a limit at round number for 21.

+21

weekly total so far -22

short euro again

2005-09-15T22:53:00.000+12:00

Upward TL broken on 15 minute and with the trend still down the round number looks good for a first target.

Short at 1.2221 SL 1.2237

edit moved SL to 2245

Asian session break out

2005-09-15T20:01:00.000+12:00

I've talked about this strategy before and got it off Phil Newton at trading-strategies.info but Peter Bain of Forexmentor.com actually used this in one of his reviews and has since put it in his library on his site. It brought a smile to my face that he thought it worth it. I bought the course about 8 months ago and although I thought the course was a bit basic and to be honest I didn't really learn that much, it's a very good as an introduction for new traders though, however his website and daily reviews are an excellent resource. There are many profitable traders in all ranges of ability and strategies there and I always learn something. Anyway, as this is a free blog and this strategy still works (not so much on cable of late though...) the pic should explain itself.

15/09/05

2005-09-15T19:46:00.000+12:00

Short euro at 1.2220. 1st TP 1.2175

SL now 1.2232 as RSI divergence on 15 minute and a longer term divergence seems to be forming on the hourly. The trend is still down and there's heavy resistance around the 2230 area so hopefully a drop to the round number will occur for an exit. The pivot at 2217 is holding though.... Otherwise it looks like another range day where I missed the original half profit exit at the 2200 area. I'm hoping the more I miss them the more it'll be ingrained to automatically take them.

As i write I' m stopped out.

-12

Will wait for a break of the hourly down then a retrace before entry north. Otherwise wait and see at the hourly TL for a continuation south.

closed euro short

2005-09-14T21:20:00.000+12:00

For Breakeven. The world has stopped.

Price is at the bottom of the major up trend line from the 5th july.
Directly opposite signals as the daily TL is saying up along with RSI divergence on the 4HR, but the EMAs all say down.
The Dec 04 - June 05 23% retrace fib is supplying both support and resistance on the lower TFs and having a short around there without much volatility made me get out. Looks like the US session is the next time some real movement could occur. I'll be proved wrong no doubt.
A long position is looking most likely with the major TL holding, but will wait for the retrace of a breakout or the test of S/R now before getting back in.

edit - long euro at 1.2280.

edit2 - as it was heading past bed time (got work to go to now...) left it with a TP of 1.2305 which was the M3 pivot, it was a conservative projection, but missing a TP by a couple of pips is most disheartening. Came down this morning and 25 pips in the pocket cheers.

+25

short euro again

2005-09-14T20:13:00.000+12:00

Short at 1.2284, SL 1 pip +spread above the 15 min hammer.

closed Euro

2005-09-14T19:44:00.000+12:00

Took half profit at 1.2272 and moved SL to 1.2282, left the screen for 10 minutes and it shot up out of nowhere, nice to come out with a profit again though - so in total

+14

Short Euro

2005-09-14T18:57:00.000+12:00

Moved to the euro now as Cable has lent credence to phrase 'British pounded'. It's too spikey for me day trading and is affecting my confidence in my trades. The only reason it attracted me was to the larger gains there are - which is greedy - so a more sedate pace is required for now.

Short euro at 1.2284 - looking for the 1.2250 area to start with.

Tuesday 13/09/05 total

2005-09-14T00:47:00.000+12:00

-31

Royal flush

2005-09-14T00:29:00.000+12:00

A perfect poker hand of the things you shouldn't let take ahold of you when trading have all reared their ugly head today.

Greed
Fear
Impatience
Lack of analysis - didn't check the news
Bad Money Management

It's been a real lessons day that's for sure

I really need to lose the mental block I've got of trading the range

Stopped out - 30

Gone long at 1.8203 and closed at 1.8220

+17

closed cable short

2005-09-13T23:46:00.000+12:00

Looks like the Americans are taking this north - pretty frustrating UK session, lessons learnt are taking partial profits in a choppy market. Learnt this many times, but obviously needed to learn it again.

Closed and reversed at 1.8238

-16

edit - Forgot to check if there's news today - seems to be a day of learning the same lessons all over again.

Tuesday 13/09/05

2005-09-13T20:31:00.000+12:00

The hourly trend is obvious and it's down. Price is still in between the 38% and 50% fib(1.8160), which also happens to be around the R1 pivot. The projected low for the day of 1.8112 looks unnatainable bar real selling due to the major support levels in it's way, so I'm still looking for it to make an attempt at the 50%. The first trade wasn't very clever as it was straight into support and I should have waited (first trade of the week is always a cracker...). The second trade is a bounce off the top 15 min bolly, half way between the pivot and M2 plus the final TD TL down.
After it hits the 50%, there should be some consolidation and potentially a reversal in the US session for a resumption of the major up trend.

1st trade today, short at 1.8195, closed at 1.8205

-10

2nd trade short at 1.8222.

WE 09/09/05

2005-09-11T12:29:00.000+12:00

The result is actually better than my impression of the week as I didn't think I traded that well.

+70

closed cable

2005-09-09T20:20:00.000+12:00

Out on a limit at 1.8555

+16

Cable short

2005-09-09T19:38:00.000+12:00

Try again tonight...

short at 1.8380. SL 1.8405. TP 1.8355 - putting a time stop on this one of an hour -if nothing has happened I'll be looking for an exit.

09/09/05

2005-09-09T18:45:00.000+12:00

Got stopped out yesterday for -25. Should have got out at the TL break but wasn't in front of the PC for the 15 mins when it zoomed off, my fault - another lesson learnt. Should have caught the short off the top TL too but I'm having problems with ths kind of trend cable's in. It's so spikey but I'm lulled into an almost catatonic screen staring paralysis as not very much seems to happen, then I miss the most basic of reverse signals. My analysis was right last night on the techs for the short, but price and bulls had other ideas. Quite frustrated about missing the spike up and the subsequent short off the TL. The other problem is tiredness, when the American market opens it's 1am here and there's been at least 5 hours of screen time - and simply put I make mistakes when tired.

If I had a pip for every lesson learnt!

busy day

2005-09-08T22:18:00.000+12:00

NOT

08/09/05

2005-09-08T20:26:00.000+12:00

Short cable at 1.8373 - Break of up TD TL, Resistance from previous support and the hourly 34EMA coming down and acting as resistance. RSI on the hourly also failing, off the top TL and the lower short term TL failed south. 1.8280 target using Tom DeMark, plus the predicted low on the pivots is 1.8286. FXOE is also singing a sell.

yesterday's short trade analysis

2005-09-08T19:24:00.000+12:00

The picture shows where I exited due to the TL break on the 5 minute chart. My entry for the short was 8435 after the tweezers on the 15 min chart at a pivot and the top bolly. Everything said down which it was - and my target was the lower black TL. However the 5 minute break of the down TL made me get out, but as can be seen price continued to my target - almost... I'm only pointing this out as a real spikey trend that breaks TLs on the way makes me nervous, even though I'm right about the target most of the time, but... the number of times I get out early greatly outweighs the times I stay in due to the few times I've been burnt. Some more analysis needed me thinks.

06/09/05 - 2nd trade, Short cable

2005-09-07T21:45:00.000+12:00

Shorted at 1.8435 under the the tweezers (some call them railroad tracks), either way after a run up and especially around resistance (the 15 min top bolly line and R1 pivot), they are a powerful indicator of a direction change.

...now moved SL to B.E. +1. First target price 1.8375 - it would be nice to see it go to the fib though at 1.8320 area - we can hope.

Update - closed at 8430, down TL broken and up TL failed to hold price - I'm not a fan of headfakes...

+5

WE 02/09/05

2005-09-07T19:55:00.000+12:00

Last weeks result.

Terrible at keeping up to date...

+93

closed cable

2005-09-07T19:29:00.000+12:00

Exited on limit at 1.8440 as I had to leave for half an hour. Looks like 1.8490 could well be the target as the hourly bolly median line has been broken, plus the major down TL form the top. Will wait for a retrace before acting. Really not sure which way it's going to go now due to fairly obvious tweezers... trade the chart!

+40

7/9/5

2005-09-07T18:39:00.000+12:00

Long cable at 1.8400 SL 1.8380

20 pip stop as it's a real yes or no trade now, the down trend TL has been broken north on the 15 minute chart and there's been a bounce off the hourly bottom bolly and 85 EMA. The hourly bollies have levelled off so the expectation is an attempt at the top bolly around the 1.8490 area, however there's going to be some resistance at 1.8445 due ot the hourly down TL from the previous major top, the R1 pivot and the top of the 15 min bolly.

06/09/05

2005-09-06T23:09:00.000+12:00

Closed out at 8439, thought it may hit the 8450 mark but no joy yet and impatience to go to bed took over. Not my finest day's trading but some profit and more lessons learnt.

+24

Price now at the heavy fib resistance, so a continued break through 8480 means another north push is on, other wise it'll be a spiky down trend to 8350 and maybe 8185

06/09/05

2005-09-06T20:56:00.000+12:00

Looks like the middle bolly has taken hold and the down TL has been broken.
Closed the short for

-18

As i write this it's dropped more but cable scares me when it gets on a tear and I'm trading in the opposite direction to the major trend.

The bulls didn't even have the decency to let price get near a retracement fib....

Long at 18415

05/09/05 con't and 06/09/05

2005-09-06T18:31:00.000+12:00

Yesterday's second trade is on this chart too (red arrow under top TL), although it was against the trend the divergences on the hourly and 15 minute were too much for it. The trade I got stopped out on was simply getting in too early... Trying to pick a top is almost impossible (as I've proved many times), so waiting for a nice trend break was too much of a tempation. Got in at 18483 and took profits at the pivot on a limit as I was in bed at 18425

+ 58

Today's trade so far is another short at 18403, it's a down trend now until at least the 18320 area. That's what I'm thinking, but there's the London open and the middle bollinger band on the hourly to get through.

may be I'll learn one day

2005-09-05T20:43:00.000+12:00

Stopped out -30

Trading against the trend...

KISSed the strategy

2005-09-05T19:23:00.000+12:00

Over the last few weeks I've found I've been suffering a bit from indicator paralysis, although there's been a real improvement in my results, so for the last couple of weeks on demo I've been trying out just my bollingerband and EMA set up with RSI 9 across all the TFs. And to be honest my mind has become a lot less cluttered with info to process.
I'm keeping the FXovereasy strategy on a separate 15 min chart as confirmation now, but I'm feeling alot more confident in my decisions, especially with the extra analysis I've put into RSI which is a really expressive indicator in my opinion. But then again it's taken probably 4 or 5 months to become truly comfortable with what it's telling me. I still like CCI on the 5 min chart though.

short cable 8466 - TP 8425

2005-09-05T19:12:00.000+12:00

5/9/5 - Cable

2005-09-05T18:39:00.000+12:00

After missing the majority of cable's meteoric rise for various reasons not to do with trading, this week should be interesting as the COT data has show a marked increase of the big dogs starting to short the pound. As it usually takes 2-8 weeks for their influence to show in the market, it is probably only a correction before more north, but you never know.

This is my analysis today, with cable hitting some pretty rigid fib resistance on the black chart from three different angles. There''s enormous divergence on the hourly chart and as I look at the 15 min chart, we've been resisted at a pivot and there's divergence here also. Not sure how far it's going as there's likely to be some major money coming in when they think it's cheap again (techinicals get overruled when it gets emotional and getting stopped out on an irrational spike is annoying), but i'm short till the 8415-25 area, where a wait and see tactic will come in.

1/9/5 - cable again

2005-09-02T00:55:00.000+12:00

entered long again at 1.8119, SL moved to 1.8140

closed at 8144

+25

1/9/5

2005-09-01T21:23:00.000+12:00

back in at 1.8083 long, then reversed at 8073 - 1-2-3 top, no. 2 broken by a pip.

-10

stopped and reversed again at 8085 after the '3' was broken. The 5 minute showed the 1-2-3 with a failed break north then a break south, thought it would at least hit 8055. Trying to play the Joe Ross trade - didn't work this time.

-12

closed at 8081, think it's now a trading range as 8084 resistance is holding. Would have tried to capture 10 pips north up to 95, but blinked and missed it.

-4

Not risking a short now, keeping the pips for a north run - if at all.
cable not playing the game...

More to ponder on.

1/9/05 - cable

2005-09-01T20:40:00.000+12:00

long @ 18027 - SL moved to 1.8050 now

First resistance at 18084 - probably going to to take half profits around there, see if it makes a convincing breeakthrough.

SL moved to 8083 for all.

stopped out +47

Market Malfeasance

2005-09-01T08:28:00.000+12:00

malfeasance \mal-FEE-zuhn(t)s\, noun:Wrongdoing, misconduct, or misbehavior

I'd like to dedicate this to ALL traders, whether you've 20 years under your belt or 20 days, you've probably had one of these days or you're going to have one.... oh yes you are..... and when you do, please post it here.
Having had 'one of those days' and put in about 14 hours screen time on and off during the day I'd managed to salvage the day with -8. I live in NZ so it was about 2.30am and I was getting very tired, emotional and irritable, so it was time to stop.
My thought at the time was cable had pretty much done it's average daily range and we'd had the high for the day. It's definitely a change of direction, but to my mind at least, it was going to range and I'd look for longs tomorrow.I'd like to draw your attention to the little red arrow (it looks quite cute in it's own little red and arrow like way...), it's where I'd just closed my short trade which was a positive result to end the day on and had rectified some of the damage I'd done during the day.

With a little positiveness to hit bed with I switched the PC off...

May all our days be nothing like this one

Moneytec Market Malfeasance thread

CLosed cable + end of day for me

2005-09-01T01:42:00.000+12:00

closed cable at 17862, +19

Days total - 8

2005-09-01T00:10:00.000+12:00

Short cable at 1.7860. 20 pip SL. Top of 5 min fib, TL down and 30 min mid line on bollinger band. Looking for return to 17845 at least.

closed at 7872

-12

not a good day today. Things to ponder are making the day trading strategy that I know into something I actually use rather than always looking for the big move. Missed 4 or 5, 15-25 pip moves today due to this. Also just noticed a blatant 30 min CCI TL break that I missed for the US session spike up, plus 15 min MACD divergence - good for 45 pips at least. Too pre-occupied with looking for the big short trade. Hopefully a lesson learnt. Trade the chart!

-27 total

New trade. Short @17881 SL 30. TP 17860

New order fits my strat perfectly so it should be taken.