Magpie Trader
Saturday, September 17, 2005
WE 16/09/05
Weekly result is:
-5
I've had much worse weeks prior to this blog but this week definitely showed the 'system' works, but the user requires some re-programming. Although this used to be a fairly regular occurence it's been a good 6 weeks since this occured in all it's glory (whic is an improvement). A trending market is no problem for me or the system (although there is room for improvement by the user...) and usually puts me into a state of how easy this is and how great I am at it... but a ranging market gives me problems psychologically, which affects me prior to getting into a trend - although the system backtested and forward tested works very well. Like I mentioned in an earlier post the 'Royal Flush' of 'user' failure raised it's ugly head this week, but gave me the impetus to just follow the system towards the end of the week, although I got out too early on the final Friday trade. The move from cable to the euro also helped I think as cable has been far too spikey putting my system's money management of a 30 pip stop under stress - mainly due to getting in too late, even by half a bar, can mean 15+ pips away from where my proper entry should have been. it's also been putting me under stress too which has meant rash and hasty decisions that have cost.
The long term average for the life of this blog is about 25% under achieving right now, but sticking to the system with regular profits in a ranging market and waiting for a trend to rectify things is what is required. The long term goal is 112 pips a week (the low end of the average weekly total when back and fwd tested over a year).
I'm still tweaking and simplifying the odd thing as time goes by, not just with the system, but with how I mentally deal with pulling the trigger, not pulling the trigger etc (does it ever end?). I've definitely learnt a great deal this week and the trading paradigm of it being 20% system 80% psychology has rung very true. Although I've been doing this a year part time and almost a year full time at 14 hour days (and stocks for 3 years prior to that), I still feel there's a great deal more to learn about my 'trading self' than there is about my system - simply because the system works, it's me that buggers it up at times.
A great article by Soultrader can be found here:
The learning cycle for a newbie trader
Personally I reckon I keep bouncing between stage 3 and 4, then back down to 1 and 2 occasionally. Roll on stage 5!
On a trading note I'm going to start from Monday really examining the other pairs for possible trade set ups prior to London open, as I've got four what you call 'triple A' setups, that rarely fail - so instead of sticking with the one pair the daily analysis will set alerts for other pairs setting up for these four if available- which in turn should increase the probability of success. The reason I've not done this before is that some of the trader's I've been in contact with that are consistently profitable stuck to learning a single pair until they knew it inside out. Most diversified after a time looking for 'their' preferred setups across the pairs, some stayed with one or two pairs (Usually cable and swissy). I know the euro pretty well now, hence the move to cable, which is running at just over even. As I mentioned earlier cable's too stressy for me so diversifying into the less volatile pairs will reap more consistent profits in relation to how much risk I'm prepared to take.
Actually realising now how much money management stress I'm prepared to put myself under and the level of profit I'm happy to take has been a leap forward and taken many months to solidify in my mind.
Trading has so many areas that need to be in sync with each other before regular profits week in week out seem to occur - I reckon I've had probably 3 weeks in my trading career where everything has clicked together and I've ended the week saying I've made no mistakes and it was all pretty much in the 'zone'.
Christchurch is really nice today (saturday), but we're meant to get a 'super storm' on Monday/Tuesday with up to 2 metres of snow in the mountains and deep snow down to the coast. We shouldn't hopefully flood being 150m up?! Mind you the ski field owners are pleased!
Have a good weekend
"Learning is like rowing upstream; not to advance is to fall back"
-5
I've had much worse weeks prior to this blog but this week definitely showed the 'system' works, but the user requires some re-programming. Although this used to be a fairly regular occurence it's been a good 6 weeks since this occured in all it's glory (whic is an improvement). A trending market is no problem for me or the system (although there is room for improvement by the user...) and usually puts me into a state of how easy this is and how great I am at it... but a ranging market gives me problems psychologically, which affects me prior to getting into a trend - although the system backtested and forward tested works very well. Like I mentioned in an earlier post the 'Royal Flush' of 'user' failure raised it's ugly head this week, but gave me the impetus to just follow the system towards the end of the week, although I got out too early on the final Friday trade. The move from cable to the euro also helped I think as cable has been far too spikey putting my system's money management of a 30 pip stop under stress - mainly due to getting in too late, even by half a bar, can mean 15+ pips away from where my proper entry should have been. it's also been putting me under stress too which has meant rash and hasty decisions that have cost.
The long term average for the life of this blog is about 25% under achieving right now, but sticking to the system with regular profits in a ranging market and waiting for a trend to rectify things is what is required. The long term goal is 112 pips a week (the low end of the average weekly total when back and fwd tested over a year).
I'm still tweaking and simplifying the odd thing as time goes by, not just with the system, but with how I mentally deal with pulling the trigger, not pulling the trigger etc (does it ever end?). I've definitely learnt a great deal this week and the trading paradigm of it being 20% system 80% psychology has rung very true. Although I've been doing this a year part time and almost a year full time at 14 hour days (and stocks for 3 years prior to that), I still feel there's a great deal more to learn about my 'trading self' than there is about my system - simply because the system works, it's me that buggers it up at times.
A great article by Soultrader can be found here:
The learning cycle for a newbie trader
Personally I reckon I keep bouncing between stage 3 and 4, then back down to 1 and 2 occasionally. Roll on stage 5!
On a trading note I'm going to start from Monday really examining the other pairs for possible trade set ups prior to London open, as I've got four what you call 'triple A' setups, that rarely fail - so instead of sticking with the one pair the daily analysis will set alerts for other pairs setting up for these four if available- which in turn should increase the probability of success. The reason I've not done this before is that some of the trader's I've been in contact with that are consistently profitable stuck to learning a single pair until they knew it inside out. Most diversified after a time looking for 'their' preferred setups across the pairs, some stayed with one or two pairs (Usually cable and swissy). I know the euro pretty well now, hence the move to cable, which is running at just over even. As I mentioned earlier cable's too stressy for me so diversifying into the less volatile pairs will reap more consistent profits in relation to how much risk I'm prepared to take.
Actually realising now how much money management stress I'm prepared to put myself under and the level of profit I'm happy to take has been a leap forward and taken many months to solidify in my mind.
Trading has so many areas that need to be in sync with each other before regular profits week in week out seem to occur - I reckon I've had probably 3 weeks in my trading career where everything has clicked together and I've ended the week saying I've made no mistakes and it was all pretty much in the 'zone'.
Christchurch is really nice today (saturday), but we're meant to get a 'super storm' on Monday/Tuesday with up to 2 metres of snow in the mountains and deep snow down to the coast. We shouldn't hopefully flood being 150m up?! Mind you the ski field owners are pleased!
Have a good weekend
"Learning is like rowing upstream; not to advance is to fall back"
// posted by Magpie @ 2:27 pm 
