Magpie Trader
Friday, September 30, 2005
WE 30/09/05
Thursday, September 29, 2005
29/09/05
Long eurjpy
long eurjpy 136.07 SL 135.77.
1st target 136.45
2nd target 136.70
A up broken through pivot. TL support. MACD crossing north. Down TL broken. FXOE confirming.
edit: closed at 136.24
+17
1st target 136.45
2nd target 136.70
A up broken through pivot. TL support. MACD crossing north. Down TL broken. FXOE confirming.
edit: closed at 136.24
+17
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Long yen
Long at 113.20 on an A up, pivot broken north. Tight stop at 113.00
closed at 113.05
-15
closed at 113.05
-15
29/09/05 cont'd
euro stopped out at 1.2016
+13
Aussie stopped out at 1.7580
-1
+13
Aussie stopped out at 1.7580
-1
WE 23/09/05
-12
Been getting into the ACD method a lot more last week and trading took a back seat. Think I needed the rest away from it anyway.
Been getting into the ACD method a lot more last week and trading took a back seat. Think I needed the rest away from it anyway.
28/09/05
Shorted euro at 1.2029 -was at projected high and had put in a 1-2-3, then tried again and put in a triple top. Looking for a round number touch at 1.2000 - then will hold and see if it's broken.
shorted Aussie 0.7579 - was a projected high and had put in a 1-2-3
shorted Aussie 0.7579 - was a projected high and had put in a 1-2-3
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
27/09/05
Not been blogging so far this week as I've been backtesting and really getting into the ACD system as well as going over most of my own stuff again. I'm pretty impressed with ACD and the other info Mark Fisher and his company have is also pretty interesting (the Nymex symposium videos are good too). His book is well presented and concise also.
So far this week I've used it as a confirmation signal on a USDCAD trade yesterday:
+39
It got me out of a EUR JPY trade today for -22, where I reversed at 135.66, some profits were taken at 136.01 and the rest is put to breakeven +1 as I'm heading to bed soon.
-22
35 +1
I'm also short the euro from 1.2027, SL 1.2055. Got a limit to exit set at 1.1997. Should have taken the usdjpy trade though as it's set up was better.
edit: closed eurjpy at 136.16 (projected daily high) so total is 50pips (didn't go to bed...)
edit 2: euro trade - half taken at 1.2010, rest moved to breakeven +1
17 + 1
Total so far this week (not including the full euro trade yet)
+84
edit 3: closed euro trade at 1.2003, think I was a bit brave/greedy thinking it would hit 1.1997. It may very well continue but there's some stiff resistance there and waiting for a c0uple of pips when bed is calling is daft.
+30
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total so far this week:
+96 (updated with euro closed trade)
-------------------------------------------------------------
put a small buy limit at 135.55 on the eurjpy SL 135.15
So far this week I've used it as a confirmation signal on a USDCAD trade yesterday:
+39
It got me out of a EUR JPY trade today for -22, where I reversed at 135.66, some profits were taken at 136.01 and the rest is put to breakeven +1 as I'm heading to bed soon.
-22
35 +1
I'm also short the euro from 1.2027, SL 1.2055. Got a limit to exit set at 1.1997. Should have taken the usdjpy trade though as it's set up was better.
edit: closed eurjpy at 136.16 (projected daily high) so total is 50pips (didn't go to bed...)
edit 2: euro trade - half taken at 1.2010, rest moved to breakeven +1
17 + 1
Total so far this week (not including the full euro trade yet)
+84
edit 3: closed euro trade at 1.2003, think I was a bit brave/greedy thinking it would hit 1.1997. It may very well continue but there's some stiff resistance there and waiting for a c0uple of pips when bed is calling is daft.
+30
-------------------------------------------------------------
Total so far this week:
+96 (updated with euro closed trade)
-------------------------------------------------------------
put a small buy limit at 135.55 on the eurjpy SL 135.15
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Euro 21/09/05
I haven't seen a decent 1-2-3 top for a while on the 15 min chart, but today provided a classic. Price is at the projected daily high, a round number and resistance form the gap down from monday. There's also been a TDTL break with a projected target of the 1.2135 area. All in all there are 4 things (a fairly major confluence of events) all pointing south.
Shorted at 1.2199 and will take some profit at 1.2175 and leave the rest to run to the projected low of 1.2137. I'll look again as price nears the projected low as that's the ADR, but price could easily seek out the 1.2115.
My new toy is the ACD system, so confirmation by that for the euro trade would be nice. Cable is putting in a 'rubber band' trade south, which also bodes well for the euro trade. Any trades that appear over the next couple of weeks will probably be on the demo acct.
Just had an 'A up' on the looney, so will wait for a retrace and/or next bar to see what to do next.
edit: FXOE system, although the Shi channel is pointing north is putting in a short trade signal, with a bottom channel tartget of 1.2135. That's 5 signals for south. ACD system is looking to agree ina bar's time hopefully.
edit2: What can you say other than it was dead wrong.... Thought the gap resistance would have been stronger? oh well, trading the chart and not 'what you think' is mostly better financially.
Either way long now from 1.2221 - not sure where it's going north though as the 1 hour bolly is looming in about 15 pips, so half profits will be taken around the 1.2235 area and the rest moved to break even.
-22
edit 3: took all profits at 1.2231, there's just too much resistance there - as the bias is long now I'll wait for a retrace before re-entry.
+10
Sunday, September 18, 2005
Yen next week 19/09/05
Positives:The first area of resistance has been broken.
8EMA has crossed the 17 and 34 north.
Support was held at the 38% bolly.
The top bolly resistance is at 113.35 and price has hit and bounced off the centre bolly.
RSI has broken the 60 barrier and is heading north.
From a weekly perspective the major down TL was broken at the end of March first week in April.
Negatives:
2nd and 3rd TL resistance are yet to be broken.
Previous resistance is at 111.60.
All in all everything looks set for a north move to at least the 113 area if 111.60 can be beaten - if it holds then 109 is the first target.
Euro next week 19/09/05 >
Positives: There's hisotrically been support around the 1.2150-2200 level.The 50% fib is currently holding.
Price is sitting at the middle bolly line.
Negatives:
The euro has broken the two major up TLs and is currently in a down trend.
The 8 and 17 EMAs have crossed south and RSI has broken support.
Looking at the hourly, there's MACD divergence signalling a north move, but MACD is currently below the zero line.
EMAs are down.
But the week ended on an upturn. There was also a bottom boly band touch on friday -1.2320 is initial resistance, a significant move above will signal a continuation of the uptrend to at least the 1.2550 area.
Saturday, September 17, 2005
Cable next week > 19/09/05
This year seems to have gone fast?...
Cable's at an interesting point right now (although the chart isn't loading?,will try later) -
Positives:
right at the bottom of the channel
Hedge funds and small specs (you and me) are heading long -all the while the big dogs are slowly unwinding their long positions.
Price is in the top half of the daily bolly with the centre line about 60 pips south of current price.
At the major down trend 61% fib support, with most recent uptrend 76% fib 30 pips south of current price.
Possible failure points are the failure of the RSI TLs to hold and the fact that in the major down trend from April 05 it was only a 61% retrace. The next major support level is 1.7820, then 1.7629, then 1.6743
Probably long, but a break of the channel means 1.7820 is next.
German election on Monday, no idea what sort of effect that's going to have.
// posted by Magpie @ 5:57 pm 
WE 16/09/05
Weekly result is:
-5
I've had much worse weeks prior to this blog but this week definitely showed the 'system' works, but the user requires some re-programming. Although this used to be a fairly regular occurence it's been a good 6 weeks since this occured in all it's glory (whic is an improvement). A trending market is no problem for me or the system (although there is room for improvement by the user...) and usually puts me into a state of how easy this is and how great I am at it... but a ranging market gives me problems psychologically, which affects me prior to getting into a trend - although the system backtested and forward tested works very well. Like I mentioned in an earlier post the 'Royal Flush' of 'user' failure raised it's ugly head this week, but gave me the impetus to just follow the system towards the end of the week, although I got out too early on the final Friday trade. The move from cable to the euro also helped I think as cable has been far too spikey putting my system's money management of a 30 pip stop under stress - mainly due to getting in too late, even by half a bar, can mean 15+ pips away from where my proper entry should have been. it's also been putting me under stress too which has meant rash and hasty decisions that have cost.
The long term average for the life of this blog is about 25% under achieving right now, but sticking to the system with regular profits in a ranging market and waiting for a trend to rectify things is what is required. The long term goal is 112 pips a week (the low end of the average weekly total when back and fwd tested over a year).
I'm still tweaking and simplifying the odd thing as time goes by, not just with the system, but with how I mentally deal with pulling the trigger, not pulling the trigger etc (does it ever end?). I've definitely learnt a great deal this week and the trading paradigm of it being 20% system 80% psychology has rung very true. Although I've been doing this a year part time and almost a year full time at 14 hour days (and stocks for 3 years prior to that), I still feel there's a great deal more to learn about my 'trading self' than there is about my system - simply because the system works, it's me that buggers it up at times.
A great article by Soultrader can be found here:
The learning cycle for a newbie trader
Personally I reckon I keep bouncing between stage 3 and 4, then back down to 1 and 2 occasionally. Roll on stage 5!
On a trading note I'm going to start from Monday really examining the other pairs for possible trade set ups prior to London open, as I've got four what you call 'triple A' setups, that rarely fail - so instead of sticking with the one pair the daily analysis will set alerts for other pairs setting up for these four if available- which in turn should increase the probability of success. The reason I've not done this before is that some of the trader's I've been in contact with that are consistently profitable stuck to learning a single pair until they knew it inside out. Most diversified after a time looking for 'their' preferred setups across the pairs, some stayed with one or two pairs (Usually cable and swissy). I know the euro pretty well now, hence the move to cable, which is running at just over even. As I mentioned earlier cable's too stressy for me so diversifying into the less volatile pairs will reap more consistent profits in relation to how much risk I'm prepared to take.
Actually realising now how much money management stress I'm prepared to put myself under and the level of profit I'm happy to take has been a leap forward and taken many months to solidify in my mind.
Trading has so many areas that need to be in sync with each other before regular profits week in week out seem to occur - I reckon I've had probably 3 weeks in my trading career where everything has clicked together and I've ended the week saying I've made no mistakes and it was all pretty much in the 'zone'.
Christchurch is really nice today (saturday), but we're meant to get a 'super storm' on Monday/Tuesday with up to 2 metres of snow in the mountains and deep snow down to the coast. We shouldn't hopefully flood being 150m up?! Mind you the ski field owners are pleased!
Have a good weekend
"Learning is like rowing upstream; not to advance is to fall back"
-5
I've had much worse weeks prior to this blog but this week definitely showed the 'system' works, but the user requires some re-programming. Although this used to be a fairly regular occurence it's been a good 6 weeks since this occured in all it's glory (whic is an improvement). A trending market is no problem for me or the system (although there is room for improvement by the user...) and usually puts me into a state of how easy this is and how great I am at it... but a ranging market gives me problems psychologically, which affects me prior to getting into a trend - although the system backtested and forward tested works very well. Like I mentioned in an earlier post the 'Royal Flush' of 'user' failure raised it's ugly head this week, but gave me the impetus to just follow the system towards the end of the week, although I got out too early on the final Friday trade. The move from cable to the euro also helped I think as cable has been far too spikey putting my system's money management of a 30 pip stop under stress - mainly due to getting in too late, even by half a bar, can mean 15+ pips away from where my proper entry should have been. it's also been putting me under stress too which has meant rash and hasty decisions that have cost.
The long term average for the life of this blog is about 25% under achieving right now, but sticking to the system with regular profits in a ranging market and waiting for a trend to rectify things is what is required. The long term goal is 112 pips a week (the low end of the average weekly total when back and fwd tested over a year).
I'm still tweaking and simplifying the odd thing as time goes by, not just with the system, but with how I mentally deal with pulling the trigger, not pulling the trigger etc (does it ever end?). I've definitely learnt a great deal this week and the trading paradigm of it being 20% system 80% psychology has rung very true. Although I've been doing this a year part time and almost a year full time at 14 hour days (and stocks for 3 years prior to that), I still feel there's a great deal more to learn about my 'trading self' than there is about my system - simply because the system works, it's me that buggers it up at times.
A great article by Soultrader can be found here:
The learning cycle for a newbie trader
Personally I reckon I keep bouncing between stage 3 and 4, then back down to 1 and 2 occasionally. Roll on stage 5!
On a trading note I'm going to start from Monday really examining the other pairs for possible trade set ups prior to London open, as I've got four what you call 'triple A' setups, that rarely fail - so instead of sticking with the one pair the daily analysis will set alerts for other pairs setting up for these four if available- which in turn should increase the probability of success. The reason I've not done this before is that some of the trader's I've been in contact with that are consistently profitable stuck to learning a single pair until they knew it inside out. Most diversified after a time looking for 'their' preferred setups across the pairs, some stayed with one or two pairs (Usually cable and swissy). I know the euro pretty well now, hence the move to cable, which is running at just over even. As I mentioned earlier cable's too stressy for me so diversifying into the less volatile pairs will reap more consistent profits in relation to how much risk I'm prepared to take.
Actually realising now how much money management stress I'm prepared to put myself under and the level of profit I'm happy to take has been a leap forward and taken many months to solidify in my mind.
Trading has so many areas that need to be in sync with each other before regular profits week in week out seem to occur - I reckon I've had probably 3 weeks in my trading career where everything has clicked together and I've ended the week saying I've made no mistakes and it was all pretty much in the 'zone'.
Christchurch is really nice today (saturday), but we're meant to get a 'super storm' on Monday/Tuesday with up to 2 metres of snow in the mountains and deep snow down to the coast. We shouldn't hopefully flood being 150m up?! Mind you the ski field owners are pleased!
Have a good weekend
"Learning is like rowing upstream; not to advance is to fall back"
Friday, September 16, 2005
closed euro
Closed out at 1.2268 - divergence and oversold on the 5 minute, time to get out.
+16
Going to sit out till the US session or a signal for a long now.
edit - typical I got out when there was another 20 pips in the trade (as I sit here now), the target was the pivot 1.2235 and the hourly uptrend line at least 1.2242.
edit 2 - Price hit 1.2200, with a stall at 1.2235 - listening to my own analysis rather than emotional responses to corrections has been proven to be a lot more profitable over time.
16/09/05
Short Euro at 1.2284
At major EMA, bolly resistance (hourly) looking for 1.2250 - but price projection is around the central pivot at 1.2235
At major EMA, bolly resistance (hourly) looking for 1.2250 - but price projection is around the central pivot at 1.2235
closed euro short
closed on a limit at round number for 21.
+21
weekly total so far -22
+21
weekly total so far -22
Thursday, September 15, 2005
short euro again
Upward TL broken on 15 minute and with the trend still down the round number looks good for a first target.
Short at 1.2221 SL 1.2237
edit moved SL to 2245
Short at 1.2221 SL 1.2237
edit moved SL to 2245
Asian session break out
I've talked about this strategy before and got it off Phil Newton at trading-strategies.info but Peter Bain of Forexmentor.com actually used this in one of his reviews and has since put it in his library on his site. It brought a smile to my face that he thought it worth it. I bought the course about 8 months ago and although I thought the course was a bit basic and to be honest I didn't really learn that much, it's a very good as an introduction for new traders though, however his website and daily reviews are an excellent resource. There are many profitable traders in all ranges of ability and strategies there and I always learn something. Anyway, as this is a free blog and this strategy still works (not so much on cable of late though...) the pic should explain itself.
15/09/05
Short euro at 1.2220. 1st TP 1.2175
SL now 1.2232 as RSI divergence on 15 minute and a longer term divergence seems to be forming on the hourly. The trend is still down and there's heavy resistance around the 2230 area so hopefully a drop to the round number will occur for an exit. The pivot at 2217 is holding though.... Otherwise it looks like another range day where I missed the original half profit exit at the 2200 area. I'm hoping the more I miss them the more it'll be ingrained to automatically take them.
As i write I' m stopped out.
-12
Will wait for a break of the hourly down then a retrace before entry north. Otherwise wait and see at the hourly TL for a continuation south.
SL now 1.2232 as RSI divergence on 15 minute and a longer term divergence seems to be forming on the hourly. The trend is still down and there's heavy resistance around the 2230 area so hopefully a drop to the round number will occur for an exit. The pivot at 2217 is holding though.... Otherwise it looks like another range day where I missed the original half profit exit at the 2200 area. I'm hoping the more I miss them the more it'll be ingrained to automatically take them.
As i write I' m stopped out.
-12
Will wait for a break of the hourly down then a retrace before entry north. Otherwise wait and see at the hourly TL for a continuation south.
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
closed euro short
For Breakeven. The world has stopped.
Price is at the bottom of the major up trend line from the 5th july.
Directly opposite signals as the daily TL is saying up along with RSI divergence on the 4HR, but the EMAs all say down.
The Dec 04 - June 05 23% retrace fib is supplying both support and resistance on the lower TFs and having a short around there without much volatility made me get out. Looks like the US session is the next time some real movement could occur. I'll be proved wrong no doubt.
A long position is looking most likely with the major TL holding, but will wait for the retrace of a breakout or the test of S/R now before getting back in.
edit - long euro at 1.2280.
edit2 - as it was heading past bed time (got work to go to now...) left it with a TP of 1.2305 which was the M3 pivot, it was a conservative projection, but missing a TP by a couple of pips is most disheartening. Came down this morning and 25 pips in the pocket cheers.
+25
Price is at the bottom of the major up trend line from the 5th july.
Directly opposite signals as the daily TL is saying up along with RSI divergence on the 4HR, but the EMAs all say down.
The Dec 04 - June 05 23% retrace fib is supplying both support and resistance on the lower TFs and having a short around there without much volatility made me get out. Looks like the US session is the next time some real movement could occur. I'll be proved wrong no doubt.
A long position is looking most likely with the major TL holding, but will wait for the retrace of a breakout or the test of S/R now before getting back in.
edit - long euro at 1.2280.
edit2 - as it was heading past bed time (got work to go to now...) left it with a TP of 1.2305 which was the M3 pivot, it was a conservative projection, but missing a TP by a couple of pips is most disheartening. Came down this morning and 25 pips in the pocket cheers.
+25
short euro again
closed Euro
Took half profit at 1.2272 and moved SL to 1.2282, left the screen for 10 minutes and it shot up out of nowhere, nice to come out with a profit again though - so in total
+14
+14
Short Euro
Moved to the euro now as Cable has lent credence to phrase 'British pounded'. It's too spikey for me day trading and is affecting my confidence in my trades. The only reason it attracted me was to the larger gains there are - which is greedy - so a more sedate pace is required for now.
Short euro at 1.2284 - looking for the 1.2250 area to start with.
Short euro at 1.2284 - looking for the 1.2250 area to start with.
Tuesday 13/09/05 total
-31
Royal flush
A perfect poker hand of the things you shouldn't let take ahold of you when trading have all reared their ugly head today.
Greed
Fear
Impatience
Lack of analysis - didn't check the news
Bad Money Management
It's been a real lessons day that's for sure
I really need to lose the mental block I've got of trading the range
Stopped out - 30
Gone long at 1.8203 and closed at 1.8220
+17
Greed
Fear
Impatience
Lack of analysis - didn't check the news
Bad Money Management
It's been a real lessons day that's for sure
I really need to lose the mental block I've got of trading the range
Stopped out - 30
Gone long at 1.8203 and closed at 1.8220
+17
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
closed cable short
Looks like the Americans are taking this north - pretty frustrating UK session, lessons learnt are taking partial profits in a choppy market. Learnt this many times, but obviously needed to learn it again.
Closed and reversed at 1.8238
-16
edit - Forgot to check if there's news today - seems to be a day of learning the same lessons all over again.
Closed and reversed at 1.8238
-16
edit - Forgot to check if there's news today - seems to be a day of learning the same lessons all over again.
Tuesday 13/09/05
The hourly trend is obvious and it's down. Price is still in between the 38% and 50% fib(1.8160), which also happens to be around the R1 pivot. The projected low for the day of 1.8112 looks unnatainable bar real selling due to the major support levels in it's way, so I'm still looking for it to make an attempt at the 50%. The first trade wasn't very clever as it was straight into support and I should have waited (first trade of the week is always a cracker...). The second trade is a bounce off the top 15 min bolly, half way between the pivot and M2 plus the final TD TL down.
After it hits the 50%, there should be some consolidation and potentially a reversal in the US session for a resumption of the major up trend.
1st trade today, short at 1.8195, closed at 1.8205
-10
2nd trade short at 1.8222.
After it hits the 50%, there should be some consolidation and potentially a reversal in the US session for a resumption of the major up trend.
1st trade today, short at 1.8195, closed at 1.8205
-10
2nd trade short at 1.8222.
Sunday, September 11, 2005
WE 09/09/05
The result is actually better than my impression of the week as I didn't think I traded that well.
+70
+70
Friday, September 09, 2005
closed cable
Cable short
Try again tonight...
short at 1.8380. SL 1.8405. TP 1.8355 - putting a time stop on this one of an hour -if nothing has happened I'll be looking for an exit.
short at 1.8380. SL 1.8405. TP 1.8355 - putting a time stop on this one of an hour -if nothing has happened I'll be looking for an exit.
09/09/05
Got stopped out yesterday for -25. Should have got out at the TL break but wasn't in front of the PC for the 15 mins when it zoomed off, my fault - another lesson learnt. Should have caught the short off the top TL too but I'm having problems with ths kind of trend cable's in. It's so spikey but I'm lulled into an almost catatonic screen staring paralysis as not very much seems to happen, then I miss the most basic of reverse signals. My analysis was right last night on the techs for the short, but price and bulls had other ideas. Quite frustrated about missing the spike up and the subsequent short off the TL. The other problem is tiredness, when the American market opens it's 1am here and there's been at least 5 hours of screen time - and simply put I make mistakes when tired.
If I had a pip for every lesson learnt!
If I had a pip for every lesson learnt!
Thursday, September 08, 2005
busy day
NOT
08/09/05
Short cable at 1.8373 - Break of up TD TL, Resistance from previous support and the hourly 34EMA coming down and acting as resistance. RSI on the hourly also failing, off the top TL and the lower short term TL failed south. 1.8280 target using Tom DeMark, plus the predicted low on the pivots is 1.8286. FXOE is also singing a sell.
yesterday's short trade analysis
The picture shows where I exited due to the TL break on the 5 minute chart. My entry for the short was 8435 after the tweezers on the 15 min chart at a pivot and the top bolly. Everything said down which it was - and my target was the lower black TL. However the 5 minute break of the down TL made me get out, but as can be seen price continued to my target - almost... I'm only pointing this out as a real spikey trend that breaks TLs on the way makes me nervous, even though I'm right about the target most of the time, but... the number of times I get out early greatly outweighs the times I stay in due to the few times I've been burnt. Some more analysis needed me thinks.Wednesday, September 07, 2005
06/09/05 - 2nd trade, Short cable
Shorted at 1.8435 under the the tweezers (some call them railroad tracks), either way after a run up and especially around resistance (the 15 min top bolly line and R1 pivot), they are a powerful indicator of a direction change.
...now moved SL to B.E. +1. First target price 1.8375 - it would be nice to see it go to the fib though at 1.8320 area - we can hope.
Update - closed at 8430, down TL broken and up TL failed to hold price - I'm not a fan of headfakes...
+5
...now moved SL to B.E. +1. First target price 1.8375 - it would be nice to see it go to the fib though at 1.8320 area - we can hope.
Update - closed at 8430, down TL broken and up TL failed to hold price - I'm not a fan of headfakes...
+5
WE 02/09/05
closed cable
Exited on limit at 1.8440 as I had to leave for half an hour. Looks like 1.8490 could well be the target as the hourly bolly median line has been broken, plus the major down TL form the top. Will wait for a retrace before acting. Really not sure which way it's going to go now due to fairly obvious tweezers... trade the chart!
+40
7/9/5
Long cable at 1.8400 SL 1.8380
20 pip stop as it's a real yes or no trade now, the down trend TL has been broken north on the 15 minute chart and there's been a bounce off the hourly bottom bolly and 85 EMA. The hourly bollies have levelled off so the expectation is an attempt at the top bolly around the 1.8490 area, however there's going to be some resistance at 1.8445 due ot the hourly down TL from the previous major top, the R1 pivot and the top of the 15 min bolly.
20 pip stop as it's a real yes or no trade now, the down trend TL has been broken north on the 15 minute chart and there's been a bounce off the hourly bottom bolly and 85 EMA. The hourly bollies have levelled off so the expectation is an attempt at the top bolly around the 1.8490 area, however there's going to be some resistance at 1.8445 due ot the hourly down TL from the previous major top, the R1 pivot and the top of the 15 min bolly.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
06/09/05
Closed out at 8439, thought it may hit the 8450 mark but no joy yet and impatience to go to bed took over. Not my finest day's trading but some profit and more lessons learnt.
+24
Price now at the heavy fib resistance, so a continued break through 8480 means another north push is on, other wise it'll be a spiky down trend to 8350 and maybe 8185
+24
Price now at the heavy fib resistance, so a continued break through 8480 means another north push is on, other wise it'll be a spiky down trend to 8350 and maybe 8185
06/09/05
Looks like the middle bolly has taken hold and the down TL has been broken.
Closed the short for
-18
As i write this it's dropped more but cable scares me when it gets on a tear and I'm trading in the opposite direction to the major trend.
The bulls didn't even have the decency to let price get near a retracement fib....
Long at 18415
Closed the short for
-18
As i write this it's dropped more but cable scares me when it gets on a tear and I'm trading in the opposite direction to the major trend.
The bulls didn't even have the decency to let price get near a retracement fib....
Long at 18415
05/09/05 con't and 06/09/05
Yesterday's second trade is on this chart too (red arrow under top TL), although it was against the trend the divergences on the hourly and 15 minute were too much for it. The trade I got stopped out on was simply getting in too early... Trying to pick a top is almost impossible (as I've proved many times), so waiting for a nice trend break was too much of a tempation. Got in at 18483 and took profits at the pivot on a limit as I was in bed at 18425+ 58
Today's trade so far is another short at 18403, it's a down trend now until at least the 18320 area. That's what I'm thinking, but there's the London open and the middle bollinger band on the hourly to get through.
Monday, September 05, 2005
may be I'll learn one day
KISSed the strategy
Over the last few weeks I've found I've been suffering a bit from indicator paralysis, although there's been a real improvement in my results, so for the last couple of weeks on demo I've been trying out just my bollingerband and EMA set up with RSI 9 across all the TFs. And to be honest my mind has become a lot less cluttered with info to process.
I'm keeping the FXovereasy strategy on a separate 15 min chart as confirmation now, but I'm feeling alot more confident in my decisions, especially with the extra analysis I've put into RSI which is a really expressive indicator in my opinion. But then again it's taken probably 4 or 5 months to become truly comfortable with what it's telling me. I still like CCI on the 5 min chart though.
I'm keeping the FXovereasy strategy on a separate 15 min chart as confirmation now, but I'm feeling alot more confident in my decisions, especially with the extra analysis I've put into RSI which is a really expressive indicator in my opinion. But then again it's taken probably 4 or 5 months to become truly comfortable with what it's telling me. I still like CCI on the 5 min chart though.
short cable 8466 - TP 8425
5/9/5 - Cable
After missing the majority of cable's meteoric rise for various reasons not to do with trading, this week should be interesting as the COT data has show a marked increase of the big dogs starting to short the pound. As it usually takes 2-8 weeks for their influence to show in the market, it is probably only a correction before more north, but you never know.
This is my analysis today, with cable hitting some pretty rigid fib resistance on the black chart from three different angles. There''s enormous divergence on the hourly chart and as I look at the 15 min chart, we've been resisted at a pivot and there's divergence here also. Not sure how far it's going as there's likely to be some major money coming in when they think it's cheap again (techinicals get overruled when it gets emotional and getting stopped out on an irrational spike is annoying), but i'm short till the 8415-25 area, where a wait and see tactic will come in.
Friday, September 02, 2005
1/9/5 - cable again
entered long again at 1.8119, SL moved to 1.8140
closed at 8144
+25
closed at 8144
+25
Thursday, September 01, 2005
1/9/5
back in at 1.8083 long, then reversed at 8073 - 1-2-3 top, no. 2 broken by a pip.
-10
stopped and reversed again at 8085 after the '3' was broken. The 5 minute showed the 1-2-3 with a failed break north then a break south, thought it would at least hit 8055. Trying to play the Joe Ross trade - didn't work this time.
-12
closed at 8081, think it's now a trading range as 8084 resistance is holding. Would have tried to capture 10 pips north up to 95, but blinked and missed it.
-4
Not risking a short now, keeping the pips for a north run - if at all.
cable not playing the game...
More to ponder on.
-10
stopped and reversed again at 8085 after the '3' was broken. The 5 minute showed the 1-2-3 with a failed break north then a break south, thought it would at least hit 8055. Trying to play the Joe Ross trade - didn't work this time.
-12
closed at 8081, think it's now a trading range as 8084 resistance is holding. Would have tried to capture 10 pips north up to 95, but blinked and missed it.
-4
Not risking a short now, keeping the pips for a north run - if at all.
cable not playing the game...
More to ponder on.
1/9/05 - cable
long @ 18027 - SL moved to 1.8050 now
First resistance at 18084 - probably going to to take half profits around there, see if it makes a convincing breeakthrough.
SL moved to 8083 for all.
stopped out +47
First resistance at 18084 - probably going to to take half profits around there, see if it makes a convincing breeakthrough.
SL moved to 8083 for all.
stopped out +47
Market Malfeasance
malfeasance \mal-FEE-zuhn(t)s\, noun:Wrongdoing, misconduct, or misbehaviorI'd like to dedicate this to ALL traders, whether you've 20 years under your belt or 20 days, you've probably had one of these days or you're going to have one.... oh yes you are..... and when you do, please post it here.
Having had 'one of those days' and put in about 14 hours screen time on and off during the day I'd managed to salvage the day with -8. I live in NZ so it was about 2.30am and I was getting very tired, emotional and irritable, so it was time to stop.
My thought at the time was cable had pretty much done it's average daily range and we'd had the high for the day. It's definitely a change of direction, but to my mind at least, it was going to range and I'd look for longs tomorrow.I'd like to draw your attention to the little red arrow (it looks quite cute in it's own little red and arrow like way...), it's where I'd just closed my short trade which was a positive result to end the day on and had rectified some of the damage I'd done during the day.
With a little positiveness to hit bed with I switched the PC off...
May all our days be nothing like this one
Moneytec Market Malfeasance thread
CLosed cable + end of day for me
Short cable at 1.7860. 20 pip SL. Top of 5 min fib, TL down and 30 min mid line on bollinger band. Looking for return to 17845 at least.
closed at 7872
-12
not a good day today. Things to ponder are making the day trading strategy that I know into something I actually use rather than always looking for the big move. Missed 4 or 5, 15-25 pip moves today due to this. Also just noticed a blatant 30 min CCI TL break that I missed for the US session spike up, plus 15 min MACD divergence - good for 45 pips at least. Too pre-occupied with looking for the big short trade. Hopefully a lesson learnt. Trade the chart!
-27 total
New trade. Short @17881 SL 30. TP 17860
New order fits my strat perfectly so it should be taken.
closed at 7872
-12
not a good day today. Things to ponder are making the day trading strategy that I know into something I actually use rather than always looking for the big move. Missed 4 or 5, 15-25 pip moves today due to this. Also just noticed a blatant 30 min CCI TL break that I missed for the US session spike up, plus 15 min MACD divergence - good for 45 pips at least. Too pre-occupied with looking for the big short trade. Hopefully a lesson learnt. Trade the chart!
-27 total
New trade. Short @17881 SL 30. TP 17860
New order fits my strat perfectly so it should be taken.
