Magpie Trader
Monday, October 31, 2005
31/10/05
Long USDJPY 115.71 SL 115.51
edit: one taken at 115.95 SL moved to 115.78
+24 (+7 locked in)
--SL moved to 115.88
+24 (+17 locked in)
--SL moved to 116.08
+24 (+37 locked in)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
short cable1.7806 SL 1.7828
edit: one taken at 1.7779 SL moved to 1.7805
+25 (+1 locked in)
--SL moved to 1.7796
+25 (+10 locked in)
Profit taken at 1.7696
+135
edit: one taken at 115.95 SL moved to 115.78
+24 (+7 locked in)
--SL moved to 115.88
+24 (+17 locked in)
--SL moved to 116.08
+24 (+37 locked in)
--SL moved to 116.26
+24 (+55 locked in)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
short cable1.7806 SL 1.7828
edit: one taken at 1.7779 SL moved to 1.7805
+25 (+1 locked in)
--SL moved to 1.7796
+25 (+10 locked in)
Profit taken at 1.7696
+135
Monthly Results
Results since beginning of blog as the blog was intended to help me focus my attention more, stop over trading and produce more consistent results.
2005
September +182
October + 735
2005
September +182
October + 735
WE 28/10/05
Thursday, October 27, 2005
27/10/05
Short eurjpy 139.71 Aup rubberband trade. Stop and reverse at 139.97
stopped out and reversed
-52
long 139.97 SL 139.75
closed at 139.79
-36
Long cable at 1.7867 - A up and yesterday's high broken. SL 1.7837
closed cable at 1.7872 - it's taking too long and there's a big fat shooting star
+10
the Greenspan speech to day may be holding everything up, don't know, off to read the Logical trader again.
If any readers were wondering if this blog was real, the last couple of days should prove it. It was all going so well for a few weeks there - seem to have lost it - off to find it again.
In the mean time cable has a long bias for the day, so will wait for any retrace for re-entry.
-76 for the day
stopped out and reversed
-52
long 139.97 SL 139.75
closed at 139.79
-36
Long cable at 1.7867 - A up and yesterday's high broken. SL 1.7837
closed cable at 1.7872 - it's taking too long and there's a big fat shooting star
+10
the Greenspan speech to day may be holding everything up, don't know, off to read the Logical trader again.
If any readers were wondering if this blog was real, the last couple of days should prove it. It was all going so well for a few weeks there - seem to have lost it - off to find it again.
In the mean time cable has a long bias for the day, so will wait for any retrace for re-entry.
-76 for the day
Philosophical psychology and Phillips Dog
The quotes below are by a trader, 'Phillips Dog', who gives his words of wisdom most days on spreadtrade2win.
"The more success you achieve, the greater your self-efficacy, and the more likely you'll be able to trade in a greater variety of market conditions and persist until you achieve enduring profitability."
he also says:
"When you are dogged by a ruff trade, relax and learn to be flatulent. It won't move the market but it will move everyone else."
As all the pictures of him are a dog in front of his trading screens, I'm not entirely sure that it's not the dog who actually trades?! Anyway....
Yesterday was a humbling experience for me as it's been nearly 5 months since I've overtraded and gone on what I 'thought was going to happen' or 'pushing the envelope of possibilities' and not waited for a signal and not followed my strategy and plan. It cost me dearly. The day before had been one of my most profitable days in 2 years of currency trading (ironically the others occurred in that fateful first few weeks where I was the best trader in the world and my seat was soon to be parted from my flying pants).
Trading is 70% psychological and I know this (I've read the books!) and have been following this knowledge, re reading my Mark Douglas books and improving since I read them about 6 months ago, this was one of the main reasons I started this blog.
To give you the reader (if you've made it this far) some personal history, I've been blessed with picking new things up quite quickly, but.... when I was teaching myself to swim as a youngster (the woman who tried to teach me was a dragon and I didn't go back), I got over confident in my abilities after a few days, got cramp and almost drowned.
When I learned to ride a bike, once I was away and stable I went too fast, lost control and ploughed straight into a wall - I still have the scar 28 years later.
My second day on the ski slopes of Austria, on a school trip, I was imbued with the spirit of Franz klammer (the slightly older generation will know who he is) and proceeded to go into a 'tuck' at the top of a big run. After some exhilerating moments, to my surprise, the run ran out half way down with a weave left then right into a path along the side of the mountain. Not having any real stopping capabilities the weave left was handled with an attempted 'snowplough', but the weave right was very tight - unfortunately beyond the path were enormous fir trees growing up the side of the mountain and below the path. Looking back i'm not sure if it was such a good thing, but I stayed conscious as my momentum was abruptly halted by the trunk of a large fir about 30 ft up the trunk and about 20 ft over the side of the path, from here I proceeded gravitationally through branches and snow until the ground came up to hit me at an angle that continued my run down the mountain until another trunk got in the way. That was only a hair line fracture and some bruising.
When I started Shodokan (Tomiki) Aikido (a defensive martial art with lots of rolls and throws) I got a bit over confident with how far I could roll soon after starting, landed badly and tore the the top two abdominal muscles just under the ribs - very sore and lasts for about 6 weeks.
Even I'm beginning to notice a pattern. To say the least i have a trait that makes me run before I can walk - the trait then goes on to scare the crap out of me or injure me before I reign myself in and look upon it with a calmer attitude, then improve in a (semi) orderly manner. It's not just the situations above that this pattern has presented itself, it's pretty much with everything i've done from about the age of 4, I'm 33 now and I'm trying to change it. I believe though it is a good trait to have, but unless it's controlled it's going to have painful consequences.
As you may imagine my trading career has followed a similar line with many 'off the path, 30ft up a tree trunk' moments. However, I love trading, love learning and love spending time with my family and friends and having the time for Aikido and outdoor persuits - so, the goal of trading for a living provides for all the main loves of my life. Having been through all the pain that occurred in the first half of my trading career and having battled with my 'personality trait' all this time meant that revisiting it all again last night provided the impetus to write what you're reading now. I've known about this trait for years, become more aware of it in the last few years but really only started analysing it since learning to trade and reading Mark Douglas. After reading Mark Douglas I've talked about it with friends, but this is the first time I've written about and looked at it objectively with a view to really use it's assets but reign in it's failures. Maybe I'm just growing up?! - then again losing money has has always been something I don't like...
There's loads of strategies out there, you can learn from any number of free strategies with some basic trading knowledge in about an hour - use it mechanically and you'd make money. However, trading is an art form that presents an almost infinite number of possibilities at any moment of the day, not just in a trade as price can only go up or down, but what you're going to to if it goes up, then down, then up again - it's this that requires your personal psychology and patience to be like a thoroughbred race horse - learn to objectively observe what your perception of reality is at any given moment and to work and improve on it everyday. If it sounds esoteric to you and you're making money trading, then good luck to you, more than likely you're losing though. However, it's only you that can make your chosen strategy come to life.
Good luck!
Magpie
"The more success you achieve, the greater your self-efficacy, and the more likely you'll be able to trade in a greater variety of market conditions and persist until you achieve enduring profitability."
he also says:
"When you are dogged by a ruff trade, relax and learn to be flatulent. It won't move the market but it will move everyone else."
As all the pictures of him are a dog in front of his trading screens, I'm not entirely sure that it's not the dog who actually trades?! Anyway....
Yesterday was a humbling experience for me as it's been nearly 5 months since I've overtraded and gone on what I 'thought was going to happen' or 'pushing the envelope of possibilities' and not waited for a signal and not followed my strategy and plan. It cost me dearly. The day before had been one of my most profitable days in 2 years of currency trading (ironically the others occurred in that fateful first few weeks where I was the best trader in the world and my seat was soon to be parted from my flying pants).
Trading is 70% psychological and I know this (I've read the books!) and have been following this knowledge, re reading my Mark Douglas books and improving since I read them about 6 months ago, this was one of the main reasons I started this blog.
To give you the reader (if you've made it this far) some personal history, I've been blessed with picking new things up quite quickly, but.... when I was teaching myself to swim as a youngster (the woman who tried to teach me was a dragon and I didn't go back), I got over confident in my abilities after a few days, got cramp and almost drowned.
When I learned to ride a bike, once I was away and stable I went too fast, lost control and ploughed straight into a wall - I still have the scar 28 years later.
My second day on the ski slopes of Austria, on a school trip, I was imbued with the spirit of Franz klammer (the slightly older generation will know who he is) and proceeded to go into a 'tuck' at the top of a big run. After some exhilerating moments, to my surprise, the run ran out half way down with a weave left then right into a path along the side of the mountain. Not having any real stopping capabilities the weave left was handled with an attempted 'snowplough', but the weave right was very tight - unfortunately beyond the path were enormous fir trees growing up the side of the mountain and below the path. Looking back i'm not sure if it was such a good thing, but I stayed conscious as my momentum was abruptly halted by the trunk of a large fir about 30 ft up the trunk and about 20 ft over the side of the path, from here I proceeded gravitationally through branches and snow until the ground came up to hit me at an angle that continued my run down the mountain until another trunk got in the way. That was only a hair line fracture and some bruising.
When I started Shodokan (Tomiki) Aikido (a defensive martial art with lots of rolls and throws) I got a bit over confident with how far I could roll soon after starting, landed badly and tore the the top two abdominal muscles just under the ribs - very sore and lasts for about 6 weeks.
Even I'm beginning to notice a pattern. To say the least i have a trait that makes me run before I can walk - the trait then goes on to scare the crap out of me or injure me before I reign myself in and look upon it with a calmer attitude, then improve in a (semi) orderly manner. It's not just the situations above that this pattern has presented itself, it's pretty much with everything i've done from about the age of 4, I'm 33 now and I'm trying to change it. I believe though it is a good trait to have, but unless it's controlled it's going to have painful consequences.
As you may imagine my trading career has followed a similar line with many 'off the path, 30ft up a tree trunk' moments. However, I love trading, love learning and love spending time with my family and friends and having the time for Aikido and outdoor persuits - so, the goal of trading for a living provides for all the main loves of my life. Having been through all the pain that occurred in the first half of my trading career and having battled with my 'personality trait' all this time meant that revisiting it all again last night provided the impetus to write what you're reading now. I've known about this trait for years, become more aware of it in the last few years but really only started analysing it since learning to trade and reading Mark Douglas. After reading Mark Douglas I've talked about it with friends, but this is the first time I've written about and looked at it objectively with a view to really use it's assets but reign in it's failures. Maybe I'm just growing up?! - then again losing money has has always been something I don't like...
There's loads of strategies out there, you can learn from any number of free strategies with some basic trading knowledge in about an hour - use it mechanically and you'd make money. However, trading is an art form that presents an almost infinite number of possibilities at any moment of the day, not just in a trade as price can only go up or down, but what you're going to to if it goes up, then down, then up again - it's this that requires your personal psychology and patience to be like a thoroughbred race horse - learn to objectively observe what your perception of reality is at any given moment and to work and improve on it everyday. If it sounds esoteric to you and you're making money trading, then good luck to you, more than likely you're losing though. However, it's only you that can make your chosen strategy come to life.
Good luck!
Magpie
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
26/10/05
Short CAD at 1.1757 SL 1.1780
-46
stop and reverse at 1.1776. SL 1.1760. TP 1.1800 (headfake - joy!)
-32
stop and reverse again with 1... at 1.1759 SL 1.1780
closed 1.1777 as it's rebroken the TL - leaving this alone for today...
-18
Some inspired CAD trading today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
long cable at 1.7845. SL 1.7822
-46
cable stop and reverse at 1.7818
taken half at 1.7799, SL moved to 1.7812 > SL moved to 1.7787
out at 1.7783, the pivot and the 38% fib seem to be holding
+54
short at 1.7778. SL1.8000 - closed at 1.7774 - not moved in the alloted time so exited. There could be a shake out south still before the major up trend continues, so I've got a limit buy at 1.7825 SL 1.7795 as I'm off to bed.
+8
-80 for the day and thanks for the lessons.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first couple of trades (the ones with a minus next to them) above is over confidence after yesterday and not taking time. Just sticking to the ACD method or a simple breakout strategy would have put me positive instead of jumping in thinking I knew better - especially for the cable trade. The CAD trade was a TL break south and the trend is south, but now price has had two closes in an hour back above the TL... and now it's broken back below it... should have stuck with the first trade - must have been due to pay for a market lesson today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long cable 1.7771 with 1. SL 1.7742 - now off to bed
-46
stop and reverse at 1.1776. SL 1.1760. TP 1.1800 (headfake - joy!)
-32
stop and reverse again with 1... at 1.1759 SL 1.1780
closed 1.1777 as it's rebroken the TL - leaving this alone for today...
-18
Some inspired CAD trading today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
long cable at 1.7845. SL 1.7822
-46
cable stop and reverse at 1.7818
taken half at 1.7799, SL moved to 1.7812 > SL moved to 1.7787
out at 1.7783, the pivot and the 38% fib seem to be holding
+54
short at 1.7778. SL1.8000 - closed at 1.7774 - not moved in the alloted time so exited. There could be a shake out south still before the major up trend continues, so I've got a limit buy at 1.7825 SL 1.7795 as I'm off to bed.
+8
-80 for the day and thanks for the lessons.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The first couple of trades (the ones with a minus next to them) above is over confidence after yesterday and not taking time. Just sticking to the ACD method or a simple breakout strategy would have put me positive instead of jumping in thinking I knew better - especially for the cable trade. The CAD trade was a TL break south and the trend is south, but now price has had two closes in an hour back above the TL... and now it's broken back below it... should have stuck with the first trade - must have been due to pay for a market lesson today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long cable 1.7771 with 1. SL 1.7742 - now off to bed
WE 21/10/05
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
25/10/05
Long cable at 1.7656 SL 1.7628
edit: Took half at 1.7708 and moved stop to 1.7675 for rest
+52
closed out at 1.7693 to look for re-entry if the down TL is breached.
+37
Long cable again at 1.17702
edit: SL moved to BE +1
edit: both taken at 1.7751
+98
Long eurjpy at 138.45 SL 138.25
half taken at 138.65 SL moved to 138.59 TP 139.20 - edit SL moved to 138.75
+20
Short cable at 1.7752 with 1. SL 1.7770.
Stopped out -18 (greedy and top picking - never works)
Total today: 217 locked in - TP of eurjpy may be hit.
edit: stopped out on the eurjpy trade, as hindsight is great - I should have left the stop under the last retrace and would have ended up with another 70 pips. Lesson learnt again.
edit: Took half at 1.7708 and moved stop to 1.7675 for rest
+52
closed out at 1.7693 to look for re-entry if the down TL is breached.
+37
Long cable again at 1.17702
edit: SL moved to BE +1
edit: both taken at 1.7751
+98
Long eurjpy at 138.45 SL 138.25
half taken at 138.65 SL moved to 138.59 TP 139.20 - edit SL moved to 138.75
+20
Short cable at 1.7752 with 1. SL 1.7770.
Stopped out -18 (greedy and top picking - never works)
Total today: 217 locked in - TP of eurjpy may be hit.
edit: stopped out on the eurjpy trade, as hindsight is great - I should have left the stop under the last retrace and would have ended up with another 70 pips. Lesson learnt again.
Monday, October 24, 2005
24/10/05
Short cable at 1.7671. SL 1.17701
It's looking like the attempt has been made to high, but the up TL has been broken and the major trend is down. Looking for Fridays low to start with.
edit: didn't like the way it stalled as it should have plummeted to my limit for 25, move SL to +1 and then stopped out.
+1
Missed the blatantly obvious CAD long trade as it's Monday and I was looking at other ideas, so to put into force what I've been looking at as I'm off to bed, a (demo) sell stop on euro at 1.1924, SL1.1945. Limit exit half at 1.1899 then SL moved to BE+1.
It's looking like the attempt has been made to high, but the up TL has been broken and the major trend is down. Looking for Fridays low to start with.
edit: didn't like the way it stalled as it should have plummeted to my limit for 25, move SL to +1 and then stopped out.
+1
Missed the blatantly obvious CAD long trade as it's Monday and I was looking at other ideas, so to put into force what I've been looking at as I'm off to bed, a (demo) sell stop on euro at 1.1924, SL1.1945. Limit exit half at 1.1899 then SL moved to BE+1.
Friday, October 21, 2005
21/10/05
Got up this morning (end of the US session) and prior to heading to work had a look at my ACD setups and the Euro was breaking out of it's lows, through an A up, broken pivot, broken 3 day pivot, MACD rising, ADX on the 30 min chart looked like a strong buy too.
long euro 1.2009
Took 25 at 1.2034 and the rest is at breakeven +1
+25
long euro 1.2009
Took 25 at 1.2034 and the rest is at breakeven +1
+25
Thursday, October 20, 2005
20/10/05
Closed CAD trade at 1.1760, according to the COT data we could be at the bottom here and the technicals are starting to back this up on the higher time frames. I've taken profit as there's an UP TL on the 4HR chart and MACD divergence.However without the COT data I'd be itching for a TL break. There's going to be one isn't there, but I've got my pips and I'm happy.
Could this be the bottom? I've been wrong so many times you could make a quilt out of it. However I'll be keeping an eye on this one.
In actual fact the COT data for pretty much every currency is at an extreme.
Trending times ahead hopefully. Big fat trends till new year would suit me nicely ;o)
+39
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
19/10/05
short cable 1.7463
closed after some madness at 1.7456 - should have taken 30 on a limit, so limits will be input when the trade goes on instead of getting a cup of tea and missing the move... Didn't get the tea as alarms were going off.
+7
Seems to be a real scrap between the bulls and the bears. Divergence on the daily chart north and two down trend lines have been challenged, broken, then failed and are now being broken?!
Standing aside as I'm confused as to direction.
edit: now short at 1.7452. SL 1.7472. Limit for half at 1.7427 while I head for that tea now.
..and stopped out
-20
short CAD at 1.1799 - SL 1.1822
closed after some madness at 1.7456 - should have taken 30 on a limit, so limits will be input when the trade goes on instead of getting a cup of tea and missing the move... Didn't get the tea as alarms were going off.
+7
Seems to be a real scrap between the bulls and the bears. Divergence on the daily chart north and two down trend lines have been challenged, broken, then failed and are now being broken?!
Standing aside as I'm confused as to direction.
edit: now short at 1.7452. SL 1.7472. Limit for half at 1.7427 while I head for that tea now.
..and stopped out
-20
short CAD at 1.1799 - SL 1.1822
Reply to forex2stay comment
Hi forex2stay,
thanks for checking in! yup the pip average has increased nicely actually over the last few weeks. I think the blog has helped a great deal from a 'focus/discipline' point of view as a personal journal prior to that was good but not as 'real'. Also the ACD method as a way of monitoring and (sometimes) entry into the market has improved things as it automatically filters the 6 majors I look at.
I've got them set up on one screen in MT4 with the ACD, 3 day pivot indicator, daily pivots, yesterday's hi/low, a couple of EMAs and MACD on a 30 min chart (they all come up automatically), so at a glance I can see what is looking like a good set up. From there it's a check on the higher TFs to see if anything could scupper the trade, then if not head to the lower timeframes and look for an entry. Prior to this I was really just sticking to cable, which provides signals every day but not all of them are profitable or as profitable as I'd like. So after some frustration I started looking at the 6 pairs I tend to stick with and rapidly improved, but soon after 'too much info' took over and the results were mixed again.
Since I've had the MT4 ACD et al indicator set up I'm cherry picking the most (historically) profitable signals across the 6 pairs, then move to my other system signals to look for good entries. I've ranked my signals from 1 to 5, 1 being the best, which means with more options (no. of pairs) to look at the more '1' and '2' ranked trades become available.
I've also recently come across the FX wizard strategy which is by a guy called Rob, it's free at www.spreadtrade2win.com, essentially it's a standalone strategy which is profitable on its own. The main thing I took from it was the use of ADX which is an indicator I've not really understood very well before and hence ignored - now though, I love it as it's refined my previous indicator signals which were mainly support/resistance trend lines, MACD and EMA based. I still use the others, but ADX refines the signals I find and not only helps to increase the probability of the trade going in my favour, but gives the confidence to pull the trigger slightly sooner and then 'add in' (new strategy coming in next week) when MACD, other signals and ACD confirm, and ADX looks 'certain' on the lower - then higher time frames .
I've been profitable on a weekly basis for the last 4 months and profitable on a monthly basis for the last 8. However it's only the last 6 weeks that I've hit my weekly target of 112 pips (which is what it'll take to make me a full time trader in 6 months and 2 weeks and counting!). I like working in IT mainly because of the people, it's just the 40 hours a week, politics, hypocrisy, intellectually challenged bosses and the lack of daylight I'm not keen on...
I'm not making as many pips as you so please ignore the next bit if it sounds a bit like teaching yer granny to suck eggs, but... maybe the ACD method or something like it might help you with a 'quick glance' filter across more pairs, that doesn't produce the 'too much information' feeling. I can see in about 5-10 minutes now which pair or pairs I'm going to concentrate on, then move to the lower timeframe charts for that one or two to look for entry signals.
I've really only been using this set up for the last month in it's present form and I'm tweaking and refining the edges, but for the first time, ever, in my trading career there isn't that small knot fear that what looks like a great signal will turn to mush because I missed something obvious prior to the trade going on, it also shows me when i'm wrong and it's time to get out sooner. Of course I'll be wrong at times but the fear has (almost) gone.
One thing I've also learnt about myself in the last 6 months is I'm not naturally gifted at trading or at the discipline side of things (the ego has taken a righteous bashing over the last 18 months ;o) ), however the set up I've got now is simple, to my brain at least, it show's high grade signals or keeps me out and doesn't actually leave much room for 'creative' (and usually costly) thinking.
I suppose this has been written more to myself as I've not really vocalised it all before since implementing it, but it may help in some small way - that's the hope anyway.
cheers
magpie
thanks for checking in! yup the pip average has increased nicely actually over the last few weeks. I think the blog has helped a great deal from a 'focus/discipline' point of view as a personal journal prior to that was good but not as 'real'. Also the ACD method as a way of monitoring and (sometimes) entry into the market has improved things as it automatically filters the 6 majors I look at.
I've got them set up on one screen in MT4 with the ACD, 3 day pivot indicator, daily pivots, yesterday's hi/low, a couple of EMAs and MACD on a 30 min chart (they all come up automatically), so at a glance I can see what is looking like a good set up. From there it's a check on the higher TFs to see if anything could scupper the trade, then if not head to the lower timeframes and look for an entry. Prior to this I was really just sticking to cable, which provides signals every day but not all of them are profitable or as profitable as I'd like. So after some frustration I started looking at the 6 pairs I tend to stick with and rapidly improved, but soon after 'too much info' took over and the results were mixed again.
Since I've had the MT4 ACD et al indicator set up I'm cherry picking the most (historically) profitable signals across the 6 pairs, then move to my other system signals to look for good entries. I've ranked my signals from 1 to 5, 1 being the best, which means with more options (no. of pairs) to look at the more '1' and '2' ranked trades become available.
I've also recently come across the FX wizard strategy which is by a guy called Rob, it's free at www.spreadtrade2win.com, essentially it's a standalone strategy which is profitable on its own. The main thing I took from it was the use of ADX which is an indicator I've not really understood very well before and hence ignored - now though, I love it as it's refined my previous indicator signals which were mainly support/resistance trend lines, MACD and EMA based. I still use the others, but ADX refines the signals I find and not only helps to increase the probability of the trade going in my favour, but gives the confidence to pull the trigger slightly sooner and then 'add in' (new strategy coming in next week) when MACD, other signals and ACD confirm, and ADX looks 'certain' on the lower - then higher time frames .
I've been profitable on a weekly basis for the last 4 months and profitable on a monthly basis for the last 8. However it's only the last 6 weeks that I've hit my weekly target of 112 pips (which is what it'll take to make me a full time trader in 6 months and 2 weeks and counting!). I like working in IT mainly because of the people, it's just the 40 hours a week, politics, hypocrisy, intellectually challenged bosses and the lack of daylight I'm not keen on...
I'm not making as many pips as you so please ignore the next bit if it sounds a bit like teaching yer granny to suck eggs, but... maybe the ACD method or something like it might help you with a 'quick glance' filter across more pairs, that doesn't produce the 'too much information' feeling. I can see in about 5-10 minutes now which pair or pairs I'm going to concentrate on, then move to the lower timeframe charts for that one or two to look for entry signals.
I've really only been using this set up for the last month in it's present form and I'm tweaking and refining the edges, but for the first time, ever, in my trading career there isn't that small knot fear that what looks like a great signal will turn to mush because I missed something obvious prior to the trade going on, it also shows me when i'm wrong and it's time to get out sooner. Of course I'll be wrong at times but the fear has (almost) gone.
One thing I've also learnt about myself in the last 6 months is I'm not naturally gifted at trading or at the discipline side of things (the ego has taken a righteous bashing over the last 18 months ;o) ), however the set up I've got now is simple, to my brain at least, it show's high grade signals or keeps me out and doesn't actually leave much room for 'creative' (and usually costly) thinking.
I suppose this has been written more to myself as I've not really vocalised it all before since implementing it, but it may help in some small way - that's the hope anyway.
cheers
magpie
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
18/10/05
Short cable 1.7506
edit: half taken at 1.7464, SL moved to 1.7496
+42
SL moved to 1.7469, limit exit put in for 1.7395
The monthly cable chart is looking like a plunge over the next few months to the 1.6600 level is looking on the cards as thats the 50% fib from the June 2001 low to December 2004 high. We're curretnly at the 38% fib and things are looking like a 50% test is next. If your going on holiday to the US go now!
edit: SL taken out (perhaps it's the bottom and the 38% fib will hold?)
+37
total +79
edit: half taken at 1.7464, SL moved to 1.7496
+42
SL moved to 1.7469, limit exit put in for 1.7395
The monthly cable chart is looking like a plunge over the next few months to the 1.6600 level is looking on the cards as thats the 50% fib from the June 2001 low to December 2004 high. We're curretnly at the 38% fib and things are looking like a 50% test is next. If your going on holiday to the US go now!
edit: SL taken out (perhaps it's the bottom and the 38% fib will hold?)
+37
total +79
Monday, October 17, 2005
WE 14/10/05
17/10/05
Short cable at 1.7671
Took half at 1.7641 and stop moved to 1.7661
+30
closed at 1.7584
+87
Took half at 1.7641 and stop moved to 1.7661
+30
closed at 1.7584
+87
Friday, October 14, 2005
A favourite pic 1
Leader of the 'free' world and yes the phone is the wrong way round...
check the picture in the background too, awwww that's nice.
Got he pic from http://www.spreadtrade2win.com/
Thursday, October 13, 2005
13/10/05
USDCAD - Took half out on the limit at 1.1727 and I've moved the rest to breakeven +1.
+20
EURJPY - I was keeping my stop under the pivot range during the US session in case it made an attempt at it, but now in the Asian session i've moved my stop to 137.30 (+5)
edit closed CAD trade at 1.1707
+40
EURJPY - Moved stop to 137.35
CLosed at 137.57
+27
Short cable at 1.7450
closed cable 1.7466 - sold a classic head fake - not much you can do when everything in the world says down especially after a gap down and the first thought is that price is going to close the gap... my stop sell (i thought) was supposedly positioned to take that in to account as the next pivot was 20 odd pips away.
-16
Cable's looking undecided as to whether it's an ACD rubberband trade or and actual A down. Sitting aside till a signal's made.
Metatrader is down so I'm on deal4free's charts and feeling a little lost. Scrabbling to get pivots done manually indicators sorted and ACD manually set up correctly also. Should have been prepared for that, so will get that done and saved tonight for future use.
Cable - Ended up scalping when I thought it was off north, then thought it was off north again but my time stop kicked in. +1 and -7
-6
Todays news is at 1.30pm UK time is obviously effecting things after the initial excitement of the London opening.
Off to bed
+20
EURJPY - I was keeping my stop under the pivot range during the US session in case it made an attempt at it, but now in the Asian session i've moved my stop to 137.30 (+5)
edit closed CAD trade at 1.1707
+40
EURJPY - Moved stop to 137.35
CLosed at 137.57
+27
Short cable at 1.7450
closed cable 1.7466 - sold a classic head fake - not much you can do when everything in the world says down especially after a gap down and the first thought is that price is going to close the gap... my stop sell (i thought) was supposedly positioned to take that in to account as the next pivot was 20 odd pips away.
-16
Cable's looking undecided as to whether it's an ACD rubberband trade or and actual A down. Sitting aside till a signal's made.
Metatrader is down so I'm on deal4free's charts and feeling a little lost. Scrabbling to get pivots done manually indicators sorted and ACD manually set up correctly also. Should have been prepared for that, so will get that done and saved tonight for future use.
Cable - Ended up scalping when I thought it was off north, then thought it was off north again but my time stop kicked in. +1 and -7
-6
Todays news is at 1.30pm UK time is obviously effecting things after the initial excitement of the London opening.
Off to bed
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
12/10/05
The CAD trade turned out be a head fake and I turned out to be headed for the place where the majority of top and bottom callers go... the history books ;o)
Anyway I took 20 at 1.800, then got stopped out for the rest at 1.1785
+25
Cable today:
Short at 1.7417, got out at 1.7414
+3
Then long cable at 1.7445, and took profit at the pivot at 1.7472. Missed the intial run up by leaving the room for 5 minutes...
+27
Now short the CAD at 1.1740 SL 1.1761 - as I write this it's trying to take out my stop and has so far missed it by a pip.
edit: stopped out
-21
Long EURJPY 137.30 SL 137.10. 1st TP 137.50, 2nd TP 138.00
edit: 1st TP hit - moved stop to 137.25, just under 3 day pivot range as this has bounced off the 50% fib, broken the 4HR TL north and MACD and ADX are confirming a change in trend on 30 min chart (strong) and just confirmed on 1Hr chart.
+20
Short CAD again at 1.1747. SL1.1768. 1st TP 1.1727
Anyway I took 20 at 1.800, then got stopped out for the rest at 1.1785
+25
Cable today:
Short at 1.7417, got out at 1.7414
+3
Then long cable at 1.7445, and took profit at the pivot at 1.7472. Missed the intial run up by leaving the room for 5 minutes...
+27
Now short the CAD at 1.1740 SL 1.1761 - as I write this it's trying to take out my stop and has so far missed it by a pip.
edit: stopped out
-21
Long EURJPY 137.30 SL 137.10. 1st TP 137.50, 2nd TP 138.00
edit: 1st TP hit - moved stop to 137.25, just under 3 day pivot range as this has bounced off the 50% fib, broken the 4HR TL north and MACD and ADX are confirming a change in trend on 30 min chart (strong) and just confirmed on 1Hr chart.
+20
Short CAD again at 1.1747. SL1.1768. 1st TP 1.1727
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
11/10/05 continued
Long euro at 1.2024 - divergence and tweezers at a pivot, small SL at 1.2006 as it could go pear shaped rapidly. TP is either the pivot or the 1.2050 area.
closed at 1.2038
+14
Long USDCAD at 1.1780 SL 1.1760. 1st TP 1.1835, 2nd TP 1.1950, this could turn out to be a nice retrace to the 1.2000 area. 2nd major divergence on the weekly and monthly chart since Dec 2003, it's the start of the month and the first week was positive, so statistically speaking this month has a good chance ending higher. It could be the bottom even - ok... I'm calling a bottom then ;o)
closed at 1.2038
+14
Long USDCAD at 1.1780 SL 1.1760. 1st TP 1.1835, 2nd TP 1.1950, this could turn out to be a nice retrace to the 1.2000 area. 2nd major divergence on the weekly and monthly chart since Dec 2003, it's the start of the month and the first week was positive, so statistically speaking this month has a good chance ending higher. It could be the bottom even - ok... I'm calling a bottom then ;o)
11/10/05
Closed USDJPY at 114.10, the spinning top and then fall was too much for me to stay in
+29
Got stopped out yesterday of EURJPY
-23
USDCAD got out after 90 mins as nothing was happening
-3
+3 Total
+29
Got stopped out yesterday of EURJPY
-23
USDCAD got out after 90 mins as nothing was happening
-3
+3 Total
Monday, October 10, 2005
10/10/05
Aussie trade from last week stopped out for:
+14
Long USD JPY 113.81 SL113.55
Short stop at USDCAD 1.1742 -it may rise through the pivot, but real resistance at 1.1785 area and don't want to miss the short.
EURJPY is looking like a long, but will wait for a proper signal before entering.
edit: just gone long EURJPY at 138.13 SL137.90
It's a new month and the euro and cable have put in a positive week last week, which statistically gives an indication that this month will end positively. The euro in this session has made an A up and gone through the daily pivot and is also currently above the 3 day pivot range. Cable is yet to follow through and is buffering the daily and 3 day pivots. EMAs are up but both have put in the projected highs for today. Will sit aside till a signal appears.
+14
Long USD JPY 113.81 SL113.55
Short stop at USDCAD 1.1742 -it may rise through the pivot, but real resistance at 1.1785 area and don't want to miss the short.
EURJPY is looking like a long, but will wait for a proper signal before entering.
edit: just gone long EURJPY at 138.13 SL137.90
It's a new month and the euro and cable have put in a positive week last week, which statistically gives an indication that this month will end positively. The euro in this session has made an A up and gone through the daily pivot and is also currently above the 3 day pivot range. Cable is yet to follow through and is buffering the daily and 3 day pivots. EMAs are up but both have put in the projected highs for today. Will sit aside till a signal appears.
Saturday, October 08, 2005
07/10/05
not gone to bed...
Aussie just made a C down - short at 0.7575, SL 0.7596, 1st TP 0.7544, then trailing stop of 20 pips.
Cable is looking to either hold the 50% fib/bottom 3 day pivot range, or collapse. Put a sell stop at 1.17665, SL 1.7690. 1st TP 1.7635 then trailing stop of 25 pips.
now off to bed
edit: Aussie still in play, SL moved to BE +1
Cable +30, then stopped out at 1.7597 +68
+98
Cable and other pairs now below the 3 day pivot and daily pivot so bias is south, but they are al around a fib resisance point so wait and see.
Aussie just made a C down - short at 0.7575, SL 0.7596, 1st TP 0.7544, then trailing stop of 20 pips.
Cable is looking to either hold the 50% fib/bottom 3 day pivot range, or collapse. Put a sell stop at 1.17665, SL 1.7690. 1st TP 1.7635 then trailing stop of 25 pips.
now off to bed
edit: Aussie still in play, SL moved to BE +1
Cable +30, then stopped out at 1.7597 +68
+98
Cable and other pairs now below the 3 day pivot and daily pivot so bias is south, but they are al around a fib resisance point so wait and see.
WE 07/10/05
+189 (was +91 till last trade on Friday night when Cable came in with a nice fall below the 3 day pivot range, the last cable trade was a 'juicy apple trade' - see below)
Profitable again and that's good, there are still improvements in my trade selections to come though. It's like going to the grocer to buy an apple, you pick up and look at a few apples, discard the bruised ones, the ones with holes in, the ones that aren't red enough for your tastes - then you pick up your choice, give it a rub on your jumper and off you go to put your money on the counter.
If I can keep this in my head next week there can only be an improvement as I'm overtrading and taking the occasional bruised apple.
Profitable again and that's good, there are still improvements in my trade selections to come though. It's like going to the grocer to buy an apple, you pick up and look at a few apples, discard the bruised ones, the ones with holes in, the ones that aren't red enough for your tastes - then you pick up your choice, give it a rub on your jumper and off you go to put your money on the counter.
If I can keep this in my head next week there can only be an improvement as I'm overtrading and taking the occasional bruised apple.
Friday, October 07, 2005
07/10/05
short eurjpy138.79 SL138.09
short eurusd1.2155 SL1.2183
edit: closed eurjpy - not the best trade I've even made as it was right into strong resistance - been a long week and it was a mistake to take the trade. I was lucky to come out with a positive result, should have also taken 10pips when they presented themselves.
+2
edit closed euro 1.2155
0
NFP holding everything up no doubt.
This week seems to have totally bypassed the european session (the session I trade) with the Aisan session taking the main moves and the US taking the rest. Hopefully things will change next week and maybe a trend I can catch from the London open would be nice.
Keep on fishing
short eurusd1.2155 SL1.2183
edit: closed eurjpy - not the best trade I've even made as it was right into strong resistance - been a long week and it was a mistake to take the trade. I was lucky to come out with a positive result, should have also taken 10pips when they presented themselves.
+2
edit closed euro 1.2155
0
NFP holding everything up no doubt.
This week seems to have totally bypassed the european session (the session I trade) with the Aisan session taking the main moves and the US taking the rest. Hopefully things will change next week and maybe a trend I can catch from the London open would be nice.
Keep on fishing
Thursday, October 06, 2005
06/10/05 cont'd
Long USDCAD 1.1791, SL 1.1766
Short AUDUSD 0.7589 SL 0.7603
edit: USD CAD half taken at 1.1811, SL moved to breakeven +1
+20
stopped out
+1
edit 2:
AudUSD half out of limit at 0.7569 and stopped out on rest for BE +1
+20 +1
Short AUDUSD 0.7589 SL 0.7603
edit: USD CAD half taken at 1.1811, SL moved to breakeven +1
+20
stopped out
+1
edit 2:
AudUSD half out of limit at 0.7569 and stopped out on rest for BE +1
+20 +1
06/10/05
eurjpy stopped out:
-30 (looks just like the 'A' example in the usdjpy chart below, should have noticed the bollinger band was expanding north plus it was a symmetrical triangle in an uptrend, plus the pivot hadn't actually gone lower than the previous day', it was just in it's range... thankyou market for letting me pay for another lesson, gratefully received.)
audusd
+25 so far, took half at 0.7565 and stop moved to breakeven +1.
usdjpy
stop moved to breakeven +1
Either way the strat seems to be on course so far.
edit: audusd stopped out
+1
+26 total
usdjpy stopped out
+1
total combined
-3
-30 (looks just like the 'A' example in the usdjpy chart below, should have noticed the bollinger band was expanding north plus it was a symmetrical triangle in an uptrend, plus the pivot hadn't actually gone lower than the previous day', it was just in it's range... thankyou market for letting me pay for another lesson, gratefully received.)
audusd
+25 so far, took half at 0.7565 and stop moved to breakeven +1.
usdjpy
stop moved to breakeven +1
Either way the strat seems to be on course so far.
edit: audusd stopped out
+1
+26 total
usdjpy stopped out
+1
total combined
-3
05/10/05
Long USDJPY at 113.84 SL 113.61 - 1st target 114.30, the rest will be move ot breakeven when target hit.
3 day pivot strategy with MACD
As can be seen from 'A', it's not a 'given' that the price will continue, but used in conjunction with ACD day signals, or your own system, or even just basic trend lines, the alert to reverse is there - and if it doesn't materialise, then the trend will continue for a few days at least.
This strategy revolves around a day trading strategy providing the entry signal and the 3 day pivot range and MACD keeping the trade going.
I use a combination of bollinger bands across all time frames. the 8, 17, 34, 68, 170 EMAs, historical support and resistance, MACD (settings 9,19,6), chart patterns, fibs, the ACD method (Mark Fisher, who wrote the book 'The Logical Trader') and the FXovereasy strategy very kindly released by Perky.
Money management for this strategy revolves around a multi lot initial entry that takes 30 to 50 pips on a limit initially depending on the pair, then moving the stop to break even then below the previous days 3 day pivot range. When indications are that the trend is coming to an end I'll either scale out or close entirely (my broker doesn't use trailing stops).
This chart shows the USDJPY pair, but there's a long term trend line just under the last bar, plus there's divergence north on the 30 min chart, so I'll sit and wait for confirmation, which will probably be tomorrow now. If price does stay above the 3 day pivot range then the up trend will continue, price is at long term resistance currently and seems to be stalling.
3 day pivot strat audusd
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
05/10/05
sell eurjpy 136.06 SL 136.36
sell audusd 0.7590 SL 0.7720
Both have broken 3 day pivot south and MACD on the 4 HR has turned and is pointing down.
sell audusd 0.7590 SL 0.7720
Both have broken 3 day pivot south and MACD on the 4 HR has turned and is pointing down.
sell eurjpy 136.06 SL 136.30
sell audusd 0.7590 SL 0.7720
Both have broken 3 day pivot south and MACD on the 4 HR has turned and is pointing down.
sell audusd 0.7590 SL 0.7720
Both have broken 3 day pivot south and MACD on the 4 HR has turned and is pointing down.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
04/10/05 cont'd
short CAD at 1.1671 SL 1.1691
Move euro stop to 1.1947
edit: closed CAD 1.1684
-13
closed Jappy at 114.28
+20
closed euro 1.1929
-11
Move euro stop to 1.1947
edit: closed CAD 1.1684
-13
closed Jappy at 114.28
+20
closed euro 1.1929
-11
04/10/05
Still long the Jappy from yesterday SL moved to 114.13.
short the Euro from 1.1918, SL 1.1940
short the Euro from 1.1918, SL 1.1940
Monday, October 03, 2005
03/10/05
short cable at 1.7575, SL 1.7598
TL break south, in a downtrend, with resistance at the bottom of the pivot range. Low risk trade with a stop above the spinning top.
edit: blogger was down, so couldn't update at the time, closed Cable trade at 1.7527
+48
Shorted cable again at 1.7536 and got stopped out at 1.7555
-19
Went long the jappy at 114.08 (currently 114.28) on an A up in an up trend and using the 3 day pivot as the stop. Looking for this trade to continue for a few days.
TL break south, in a downtrend, with resistance at the bottom of the pivot range. Low risk trade with a stop above the spinning top.
edit: blogger was down, so couldn't update at the time, closed Cable trade at 1.7527
+48
Shorted cable again at 1.7536 and got stopped out at 1.7555
-19
Went long the jappy at 114.08 (currently 114.28) on an A up in an up trend and using the 3 day pivot as the stop. Looking for this trade to continue for a few days.
