Magpie Trader
Wednesday, August 31, 2005
closed cable
+1
Closed at 17854 as there seems to be concerted support at the 17825 area, added to the fact that we're coming into the US session now and a concerted move south isn't happening although frustrating. Going to stand aside to see what happens. Perfect scalpers day
still in a down trend though...
Closed at 17854 as there seems to be concerted support at the 17825 area, added to the fact that we're coming into the US session now and a concerted move south isn't happening although frustrating. Going to stand aside to see what happens. Perfect scalpers day
still in a down trend though...
just noticed
Took half profits at 1.7825 (+20) moved SL 7860 to give it room to run down, if stop hit I'll still get +5
It's always good to keep looking at your charts, I'd hidden Soultrader's support/resistance hourly chart behind others and just realised there's past resistance around the 7817 area. Noticed the upturn in the 1 min chart and took some profit.
Telling the wife I need 4 monitors now should be fun ;o)
It's always good to keep looking at your charts, I'd hidden Soultrader's support/resistance hourly chart behind others and just realised there's past resistance around the 7817 area. Noticed the upturn in the 1 min chart and took some profit.
Telling the wife I need 4 monitors now should be fun ;o)
Short cable again
Short cable at 17845. SL 30 pips
big 20 pip drop from the hourly downward TDTL, price attempted a break, but no support. 15 min up TL broken also. hopefully sense has returned and we can continue south.
Should have had a stop sell under that at the 7860 point
As this was being written, the old impatient me jumped right at the bottom of the 1 min bolinger band for the above trade... so price went back up.... It didn't hit my stop and patience prevailed again as my analysis, probability wise is correct, however the entry was pants
The down TL has convincingly held now, the 38% fib is broken and M2 is bust too.
Work still needed on entries as the account killer 'impatience' is still there - but that's why I started this blog.
big 20 pip drop from the hourly downward TDTL, price attempted a break, but no support. 15 min up TL broken also. hopefully sense has returned and we can continue south.
Should have had a stop sell under that at the 7860 point
As this was being written, the old impatient me jumped right at the bottom of the 1 min bolinger band for the above trade... so price went back up.... It didn't hit my stop and patience prevailed again as my analysis, probability wise is correct, however the entry was pants
The down TL has convincingly held now, the 38% fib is broken and M2 is bust too.
Work still needed on entries as the account killer 'impatience' is still there - but that's why I started this blog.
closed @7853
+2
Last trade that got stopped out was
-21
Previous trade in the asian session hit it's take profit. It hit by 1 pip and headed down for another 30 odd pips. Lesson learnt.
+3
Looks like a trading range is occurring with major support at the 61% fib and M2 pivot. EMAs still saying down but indicators are heading flat or north. May have to wait to the US session before some direction comes. There's Eurpoean news at 10am UK time, that may do something, but it usually doesn't.
15 minute price TL broken. Staying flat still something promising presents itself. See what happens at the pivot if it makes it.
It's a bit odd knowing the guy I got the Asian breakout strategy from just got stopped out too?!
+2
Last trade that got stopped out was
-21
Previous trade in the asian session hit it's take profit. It hit by 1 pip and headed down for another 30 odd pips. Lesson learnt.
+3
Looks like a trading range is occurring with major support at the 61% fib and M2 pivot. EMAs still saying down but indicators are heading flat or north. May have to wait to the US session before some direction comes. There's Eurpoean news at 10am UK time, that may do something, but it usually doesn't.
15 minute price TL broken. Staying flat still something promising presents itself. See what happens at the pivot if it makes it.
It's a bit odd knowing the guy I got the Asian breakout strategy from just got stopped out too?!
stopped out
Stopped out - it happens... short at 7855
Asian session breakout again
This is the same set up as yesterday, so the same asian break out rule applies. I entered a bit late by not being here but the SL is 2 pips above (plus spread) the green spinning top . Entry should have been under the spinning top at about 7948
31/08/05
Ok, I'm locking myself in here from now on and putting ear plugs in... got called away and managed 1.7841 short entry on Cable after missing the 7850. Asian session BO strat is the stop loss. TP should be around the 50% fib 1.7750.
All indicators say down.
All indicators say down.
Asina cable trade
Going out so SL moved to1.7869 for definite +3. Limit buy at 1.7850 to close (near 5 min bollinger and previous support.)
Asian session trade
Cable - short @ 1.7872I rarely trade the asian session but was sitting here and this was too tempting. The Asian session rarely breaks out of the US session high or low.
The hourly chart (not shown) CCI has turned over nicely from almost 200. And the 17 EMA is acting as resistance.
The 15 min has been trying to breakout the S1 pivot (green line 15 min chart) and we've had a 1-2-3 at the 5 min bolinger band. My SL is now at BE and looking for a decline now till about 6am UK BST, maybe more. 1.7845 is first target, then 1.7820.
Yesterday's trade 1
This is in response to Okl's request for live chart trade, unfortunately when I'm trading, all I can do is actually trade or I'll make mistakes, if there's time though I'll endeavour. So the next best thing is my thinking and some charts of yesterday as it was a particularily nice day!
The explanation is more for my own use, but the charts should show the trade ok. Explaining it too will no doubt also help me improve.
Daily - (At the start of yesterday's Euro session there was only a little of the last large red candle). According to my '5 star' trade set up, for a buy the 17EMA has to be above the 34EMA and rising. So here we have a buy, (although the EMAs are starting to flatten), especially as price at that time was sitting near a round number and also around the 17EMA. However the blue line following price down from the 15th August is actually the centre line of the 68 Bolinger band. (I like to use multiples of 17 for MA like indicators). As it's a stronger signal than the 17 and 34EMA - it suggests down - should have realised that on Monday...
CCI has also broken the Zero line and has started to move south - got to be careful with this indicator on the daily though as it can look one way but the lower time frames will change it with a big move.
MACD has flattened and may be turning over and spearating.
The RSI 6 line has crossed the the 14 and is separating and heading south.
So, the EMAs are saying a possible buy, but the other indicators are pointing to a more than probable sell.
4HR - I haven't quite caught the picture correctly but price is sitting around the 2 TLs around the 1.7920 area. The Aqua blue EMA is the 170EMA and could very well provide support, it's also around the point of previous price support at 7890. The 17 and 34EMAs are crossed and heading south. We've had CCI TL break and an RSI TL break, but the previous large move down has covered that, in fact CCI had hit the 200 and had hooked back up, so had RSI. A buy signal. However MACD has turned over and is separating at the water line - a possible sell.
Bit confusing here as what the 4HR is telling me. The probability is weighed to a south move.
1 HR - the arrows point to the 7-8am bar, we're at obvious support, however it's an obvious down trend with the 17EMA approaching.
Yesterdeay's trade, 2
30 and 15min - The 30 min is in an obvious down trend, 17 EMA hugging price. - Sell.
But, CCI has hit a major low previously in the Asian session and is rising. I'm starting to think there's a spike north coming as the zero line approaches. Support and resistance levels always seem to be tested to see if there's any interest in a counter trend move. Stops also tend ot be around those areas too, so with them being taken out there's usually a spike in the counter trend direction.
The 15 min blue dotted line shows the M2 pivot, which price has respected so far - buy. However the projeccted low for the day is 1.7849 at M1.
Ignore the red lines and the last 3 candles at the moment as it's still decision time.
It was at this point (about 7am UK BST) I was called away and put the stop sell at 1.7921.
Yesterday's trade, 3
5 Min - shows trade entries.
The black chart included is something from Soultrader's website that I've now started using and have found it an excellent window into price action, he's got an excellent video on it at http://www.simpleforexsystems.com/suppres/supres.html
Yesterday's trade, 4
1 Min - I mainly use the 5 min chart to trade, but I'm learning to use the 1 min too - it's been costly in the past as I've felt like a rabbit caught in the headlights before, unable to think and act as price is moving so quickly. Yesterday was much better though and it was more down to feeling relaxed and prepared than anything else.
After I'd arrived back about 9.15 UK BST:
My stop sell at 7921 had been triggered (2 pips below previous bottom) due to my previous analysis of a major down trend, the order was put in as I'd been called away - almost fatal with a spike up to come. Lesson learnt. Anyway I arrived back at my screen to see price move away off the 5 min and 1 min bollinger bands.
My thinking was:-
we are in a major down trend but there's resistance at the M2 pivot, and on the black chart there's historical resistance. So closed the first order for -8 and waited for an entry long as there was a good probability we could head to the top of the 5 min bollinger band and possibly the central pivot at 7981.
As it was a counter trend trade I take 15 to 20 pips as soon as they're given to me and move my stop to BE +1 asap. I was lucky to get 19 pips on the run up as the order went in at around 15 pips. 90 seconds later my stop was taken out.
Now flat.
Next there was a break of the Asian session low - this is a very high probability trade and a major indication of direction for the next 2 to 4 hours of the european session. When the asian session low/high is broken ALWAYS wait for the retrace then enter. This typically takes between 30 minutes to an hour. Wait for a candlestick like a spinning top or inverted hammer to complete on the 15 min chart and enter 1 pip underneath/above it's close. I learnt this off Phil Newton at Trading-strategies. I've since started adapting this for the 1 minute chart entry as seen in the picture. I'm looking for CCI to turn over, usually around the 200 level, then a CCI TL break, RSI confirms usually a bar or so later (not in this case though). There was also a little 1-2-3 top with a bollinger band top line failure.
The price fall also took price through the M2 pivot - another confirmation.
On the way down price paused at the S1 pivot at 1.7877 for 45 mins before continuing on. It never fails to amaze me how price reacts to pivots.
So we've got:- an attempt north that has failed (more often than not towards the end of the Asian session price will head towards the new euro session central pivot (calculated at 5am UK BST) - not this time though), a break of a pivot south, there's now divergence on the 15 minute chart a 'Zero line reject' on the 30 min CCI combined with a CCI TL break. MACD is south of the water line and flat. The target low for the day is 7849, which also happens to be the 61% fib from the previous run up. And also the 561EMA on the Daily chart is at 7858. Added to the fact is it's also a big fat down trend. If the first entry was missed there was plenty others on the way down.
My stop sell entry at 1.7921 is causing me to think though as although it was correct I'd have had to sit through a large draw down and probably been stopped out as I tend to use a 30 pip stop. (This has happened quite a lot on entries like this in the past and it's looking more like a dodo). Perhaps if I'm called away an entry above price around the descending EMAs to take into account the spikes (shortening the SL too) is a better idea. Alternatively, being in front of the screen is always preferable.
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
closed cable
closed at 1.7856
+73 in total (7929-7865)
Day's total +93
off to bed.
+73 in total (7929-7865)
Day's total +93
off to bed.
cable...
Took 30 @ 17899 and moved SL to BE +1
(30 pips not counted as inclusive of total above.)
(30 pips not counted as inclusive of total above.)
cable cont'd again
Short cable at 1.7929. SL 1.7959. SL 1.7951. TP1 1.7877, TP2 1.7850, TP3 1.17817
cable cont'd
+20
half profit taken at 1.7948, SL moved to BE +1, as I write this my stops just been taken out. Where's it going? It's broken the asian session low, so will be looking for entries south.
half profit taken at 1.7948, SL moved to BE +1, as I write this my stops just been taken out. Where's it going? It's broken the asian session low, so will be looking for entries south.
30/08/05 - cable * 2
30/08/05 - Cable
Cable short 1.7921 on limit order. SL 1.7951. TP1 1.7877, TP2 1.7850, TP3 1.17817
- broken M2 pivot, in down trend, broken support and TL. CCI TL break. Will be watching for a reversal north on a 5min gimme bar, but everything looking south at the moment - missed the preferred entry at 1.7940 off the EMA.
- broken M2 pivot, in down trend, broken support and TL. CCI TL break. Will be watching for a reversal north on a 5min gimme bar, but everything looking south at the moment - missed the preferred entry at 1.7940 off the EMA.
Demo update
EURJPY stopped out
-30
EMAs bunched pretty much on all TFs. The strategy learns as it goes as the forward testing progresses. It looks like a much pickier strategy when it's traded real time, with the trades coming further apart in time than I'd considered. So, stay away from bunched EMAs until a direction becomes apparent.
-30
EMAs bunched pretty much on all TFs. The strategy learns as it goes as the forward testing progresses. It looks like a much pickier strategy when it's traded real time, with the trades coming further apart in time than I'd considered. So, stay away from bunched EMAs until a direction becomes apparent.
Not just me
Just got this off the cyberforex guys - it's refreshing to see others losing too, at least I'm not paying for it. Guys like these are the reason I decided to learn to trade after getting burnt 18 months ago, because although they must be doing ok (don't know for sure though), I'd rather lose my money on my own decisions.
Not sure what they mean by 5% capital - 5% per trade, or 5% in total across all their trades. They'd have taken some hefty drawdowns if it's 5% per trade.
Dear Trader(s),
Past few trades were unexpected and hit our stop losses. This happens few times and we should be prepared by placing stop losses to avoid further losses. During such times, It is necessary to follow the discipline and the system and never risk more than 5% of capital.
So far this month we are still profitable in the 600 pips region.
--CiberForex
Not sure what they mean by 5% capital - 5% per trade, or 5% in total across all their trades. They'd have taken some hefty drawdowns if it's 5% per trade.
Dear Trader(s),
Past few trades were unexpected and hit our stop losses. This happens few times and we should be prepared by placing stop losses to avoid further losses. During such times, It is necessary to follow the discipline and the system and never risk more than 5% of capital.
So far this month we are still profitable in the 600 pips region.
--CiberForex
Demo trades
EURJPY limit sell at 135.21 SL 135.51 hit 10.40pm GMT
Demo trades update
All stopped out.
-90.
The old saying goes for a trend that you can only be wrong once. The backtesting and forward testing so far proves the profitability of this strategy, ironic I start a blog though and the first failure occurs ;o)
I signed up to www.cyberforex.com for their free 2 week trial on signals to see if there was similarity between our systems and there is, mind you my inbox is stuffed with 'updates' with their stops being moved further out or confirmation of stops hit after yesterdays US session (their stops are pretty big at times). They got a nice 55 on USDCAD though to trim the losses a bit.
-90.
The old saying goes for a trend that you can only be wrong once. The backtesting and forward testing so far proves the profitability of this strategy, ironic I start a blog though and the first failure occurs ;o)
I signed up to www.cyberforex.com for their free 2 week trial on signals to see if there was similarity between our systems and there is, mind you my inbox is stuffed with 'updates' with their stops being moved further out or confirmation of stops hit after yesterdays US session (their stops are pretty big at times). They got a nice 55 on USDCAD though to trim the losses a bit.
Re 29/08/05
well as you can see from the result things don't right all the time, but as as signals go the analysis was right, however if I'd been awake the failure at the pivot at 1.8045 and the lack of an MA cross would have been a harbinger of a move south.
The lesson learnt though was to have taken the Daily 85EMA signal which is above price right now and the 1HR Bolinger band siganls, for the shorts at around 1.8080-95.
-21
The lesson learnt though was to have taken the Daily 85EMA signal which is above price right now and the 1HR Bolinger band siganls, for the shorts at around 1.8080-95.
-21
Monday 29/08/05 * 2
Cable long 1.8034 SL 1.8013, TP 1.8075
Ok Monday rule broken, but for good reasons with strong signals. The US session is now under way, the predicted low for the day has held, there's a price TL break and CCI TL break on the 30 min chart. I don't think it's going to the stars today, so half profits are set to be taken at 1.8075, with SL being moved at 20 pip profit.
Off to bed so will see in the morning
Ok Monday rule broken, but for good reasons with strong signals. The US session is now under way, the predicted low for the day has held, there's a price TL break and CCI TL break on the 30 min chart. I don't think it's going to the stars today, so half profits are set to be taken at 1.8075, with SL being moved at 20 pip profit.
Off to bed so will see in the morning
Demo trades update
Stopped out on the Swissy trade - typical Monday for me, plus impatience to get into a trade. Below is the correct trade as per the strategy.
-30
Try again with a limit to sell at 1.2605, SL 1.2635
-30
Try again with a limit to sell at 1.2605, SL 1.2635
Monday, August 29, 2005
closed at 1.8060
-16
Just found out it's a bank holiday in the UK so a lot of traders are going to be away on long weekends, plus it's a Monday.
Trading on a Monday has really only cost me money in the past. So, an old thought now a rule is no trading on a Monday.
-16
Just found out it's a bank holiday in the UK so a lot of traders are going to be away on long weekends, plus it's a Monday.
Trading on a Monday has really only cost me money in the past. So, an old thought now a rule is no trading on a Monday.
Monday 29/08/05
Monday's trades
Position trades (Demo acct)
USDCHF - short 1.2528 @ 5.15am GMT. SL 1.2558. 1st TP 1.2415
USDCAD - short 1.1921 @ 5.17am GMT. SL 1.1951. 1st TP 1.1650
USDJPY - short 110.39 @ 5.23amGMT. SL 110.69 1st TP 109.50
USDCHF - short 1.2528 @ 5.15am GMT. SL 1.2558. 1st TP 1.2415
USDCAD - short 1.1921 @ 5.17am GMT. SL 1.1951. 1st TP 1.1650
USDJPY - short 110.39 @ 5.23amGMT. SL 110.69 1st TP 109.50
Position trading Strategy
This is a position trading strategy that has come from the day trading. It's proved itself very profitable in back testing, so I've been forward testing it on a demo account for the last couple of weeks. It's going to take a another month or so at least before I'm comfortable with it with real money.
The advantages with it are that it revolves around limit and stop order entry, plus the stops are at a reasonable 30 pip level, which is small for a position trading strategy.
In the above trade, at 3am GMT Thursday I set a limit buy at 134.98 (around the 85EMa on 1Hr chart) which was triggered at 8PM NZ time (10am GMT) . I never checked till this afternoon how it was going and was happily shown a 88 pip profit. I took profits manually at 135.86 due to the 1HR CCI turn over and TL break.
My dream for the future is to analyse the major pairs only a few hours a day, set limits and stops and only check how it's getting on every hour or so - this is mainly because after sitting for so many hours in front of a screen over the last year, I'm a bit sick of it, plus starting work again it means I'm also doing 7- hours at work with a screen.
My inspiration for this is a guy I've come across who trades this way. I hear from him occasionally but his account is reguarily making 25% a month and his quality of life is excellent. Unfortunatly he's not really forthcoming with his strategy...
Sunday, August 28, 2005
WE - 26 August result
This is the first week of results, there's also only 2 days of results from the start of the blog.
+36 - Cable
+19 - Cable
Should be a full week of results next week as the house move is finished at long last.
+36 - Cable
+19 - Cable
Should be a full week of results next week as the house move is finished at long last.
Saturday, August 27, 2005
Soul trader pschology article
This is an excellent article and following thread that puts trading in it's true light. I'm bouncing between stage 3 and 4 at the moment, which is why I started this blog.
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12879&page=1&pp=8
Thanks Soultrader, I also hadn't thought of using the line chart for support and resistance either - another one for the tool bag!
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12879&page=1&pp=8
Thanks Soultrader, I also hadn't thought of using the line chart for support and resistance either - another one for the tool bag!
Trade Selection
It's just so easy!... ;o)
Joe Ross says that the reason he's successful as a trader is due to his trade selections, as he has a very small window of criteria that have to fit before he puts money on the line, it stops him from over trading and leaves him profitable more times than not.
The attached gif (from EURJPY 12th August) shows a powerful down trend and if you're prepared to be patient, look at other pairs that fit this criteria and stare at the screen a while then you literally can't lose over time with a decent money management policy in place.
To determine the trend for me is simple, is the 17 EMA below the 34 EMA and the angle of separation increasing? = Yes - then it's an down trend (reverse for an up trend), work this down through the charts from 4Hr downwards and enter off the 15 or 5 minute chart.
This simple set up is:- 4HR chart in a down trend, 1HR chart in a down trend, wait for 15 min CCI to turn over/break it's trend line while price approaches the 17EMA (red line). With patience there's at least 5 set ups like this a week across the main pairs, at 10-20+ pips a trade, that's a healthy monthly figure to bank away and put towards the plasma TV fund.
Friday, August 26, 2005
Thurs 25th Aug
Been out and came in late, managed to catch the last bit of cables fall. Sold @ 18022 and took all profits at projected low of 17986.
+36
Should be a turn around into the US session but the daily chart is looking rangey with a possible drop to 7965 area during the asian session on Friday.
off to bed though and won't be trading the Friday session as I'm helping a mate move house then quite possibly drinking some beer!
Good trading and have a good weekend!
+36
Should be a turn around into the US session but the daily chart is looking rangey with a possible drop to 7965 area during the asian session on Friday.
off to bed though and won't be trading the Friday session as I'm helping a mate move house then quite possibly drinking some beer!
Good trading and have a good weekend!
Thursday, August 25, 2005
My strategy falls into four parts
1. Top down analysis
a. My Daily and 4 hour charts are set up with Exponential moving averages all with a common theme that they are divisible by 17.
17, 34, 85, 170, 408. The reason for ‘17’ is something I noticed on the daily chart that it will be around 17 trading days for a top to a bottom, or a trend change of some sort. 17 trading days equates roughly to a full lunar cycle, when weekends are taken into account, and as is fairly common knowledge trends tend to begin or end around a new moon to full moon.
I find in trends that price will use the 17 and 34 EMAs as support or resistance. The other EMAs mentioned act on price in other ways that you can check out by looking for yourself.
b. I also use Daily bar analysis, which is what I call it anyway…. It’s basically looking at the previous days bar in relation to the bar before it (2 days ago). Did it have a higher high and low, was it an inside bar/outside bar etc.
c. Trend lines are important obviously, as well as Fibonacci levels and previous support and resistance (Soultrader' support & resistance video was enlightening for this). Tom DeMark has his own way of drawing trend lines (TDTLs), but I tend to draw a basic line on the daily chart and use TDTLs on the shorter timeframes.
d. I’ve got MACD on the Daily and 4Hr charts. I know they essentially tell me the same thing but the differences, when they occur, give extra clues as to where price is heading.
e. I use the daily and Camarilla pivots as guides also.
2. Putting on the trade
What I'm looking for is a confluence of events, like a pivot holding or breaking, any of the ACD trades, bollinger band supporting or resisting, EMAs holding or breaking, MACD confirming a few bars later after the trade is on. I'm looking across all the time frames, preferably with the 30min chart looking positive and the 15 and 5 min charts turning or continuing in the direction of the main hourly, 4 hourly or daily trend.
I see where we are in relation to the previous daily bars (support and resistance, Fibs and trend lines) on the 4 hour chart. I draw TDTLs here and do some price projections from them. I also use Fibs and Steve Nison projections. When they agree to within a small range in price is when it gets interesting - combined with an ACD entry 'stepping on the gas' takes place here. Otherwise a smaller amount is used for entry (or no entry at all) until confirmation is achieved
I use a period 60 Bollinger band, with EMAs, on the hourly chart with MACD. This gives the intraday trend and support and resistance turns.
The 15 minute chart is used for daily pivots and MACD for turn confirmation and trend confirmation.
My entry will always revolve around TDTL breaks, candlestick patterns like 1-2-3, tweezers (railroad tracks), double tops/bottoms, hammers, spinning tops, and indicator divergences or internal indicator TL breaks - Also ACD entries.
To actually put on the trade, I’ll move down to a 5 minute chart with RSI 6 and 60 period Bollinger bands. Sometimes I’ll have the 1 minute chart open with RSI 9 looking for divergence or TL break to enter the trade. The 5 and 15 minute charts are used in a similar way, but a candlestick like a spinning top or hammer will also provide entry when price heads 1 pip (incl. Spread) above or below in the desired direction.
3. Exiting the trade (or taking partial profits)
This is exactly the same as my entries, but I'm looking for signals around TD price projections or Trend line support/resistance or EMA support resistance, pivots, price support/resistance, fibs. If the 'sky is the limit' to a trending trade I'll initially keep a stop above or below the previous hourly bar, as profit increases a stop under the previous days low (combined with 3 day rolling pivot analysis) will keep me in the trade while giving it enough room, especially when I'm not there to monitor it
4. Money management
Depending on the trade and the ACD values, and other factors mentioned here I'll use smaller amounts for trades I'm not so sure on, adding in as things improve or scale out or get out if things don't go my way. When things line up and nearly everything is in agreement i'll increase size, looking for early confirmation and another add in point. As these situation's aren't that common it makes sense to capitalise on them.
I use stop losses and these are usually put 2 pips above or below the previous point of resistance/support (opening range, pivot, price S and R) that caused the entry signal. I've also started using the ACD method for stops and time stops also and have noticed a decent improvement in profitability.
I suppose it looks quite complicated, but if it was easy everyone would be doing it. I'm fortunate that I've found something that works for me now, but in this job there's always room for improvement which is an ongoing process.
a. My Daily and 4 hour charts are set up with Exponential moving averages all with a common theme that they are divisible by 17.
17, 34, 85, 170, 408. The reason for ‘17’ is something I noticed on the daily chart that it will be around 17 trading days for a top to a bottom, or a trend change of some sort. 17 trading days equates roughly to a full lunar cycle, when weekends are taken into account, and as is fairly common knowledge trends tend to begin or end around a new moon to full moon.
I find in trends that price will use the 17 and 34 EMAs as support or resistance. The other EMAs mentioned act on price in other ways that you can check out by looking for yourself.
b. I also use Daily bar analysis, which is what I call it anyway…. It’s basically looking at the previous days bar in relation to the bar before it (2 days ago). Did it have a higher high and low, was it an inside bar/outside bar etc.
c. Trend lines are important obviously, as well as Fibonacci levels and previous support and resistance (Soultrader' support & resistance video was enlightening for this). Tom DeMark has his own way of drawing trend lines (TDTLs), but I tend to draw a basic line on the daily chart and use TDTLs on the shorter timeframes.
d. I’ve got MACD on the Daily and 4Hr charts. I know they essentially tell me the same thing but the differences, when they occur, give extra clues as to where price is heading.
e. I use the daily and Camarilla pivots as guides also.
f. I'm also using the ACD method of 6 monthly pivot range, 1st day of the month high/low and a 3 day rolling pivot range.
g. the Macro ACD method (gone into great detail in the book 'Logical Trader') of giving each day a value and counting the values is also a good indicator of sentiment.
h. the 3 day pivot range position trade - the next link after this on the main page explains it.
2. Putting on the trade
What I'm looking for is a confluence of events, like a pivot holding or breaking, any of the ACD trades, bollinger band supporting or resisting, EMAs holding or breaking, MACD confirming a few bars later after the trade is on. I'm looking across all the time frames, preferably with the 30min chart looking positive and the 15 and 5 min charts turning or continuing in the direction of the main hourly, 4 hourly or daily trend.
I see where we are in relation to the previous daily bars (support and resistance, Fibs and trend lines) on the 4 hour chart. I draw TDTLs here and do some price projections from them. I also use Fibs and Steve Nison projections. When they agree to within a small range in price is when it gets interesting - combined with an ACD entry 'stepping on the gas' takes place here. Otherwise a smaller amount is used for entry (or no entry at all) until confirmation is achieved
I use a period 60 Bollinger band, with EMAs, on the hourly chart with MACD. This gives the intraday trend and support and resistance turns.
The 15 minute chart is used for daily pivots and MACD for turn confirmation and trend confirmation.
My entry will always revolve around TDTL breaks, candlestick patterns like 1-2-3, tweezers (railroad tracks), double tops/bottoms, hammers, spinning tops, and indicator divergences or internal indicator TL breaks - Also ACD entries.
To actually put on the trade, I’ll move down to a 5 minute chart with RSI 6 and 60 period Bollinger bands. Sometimes I’ll have the 1 minute chart open with RSI 9 looking for divergence or TL break to enter the trade. The 5 and 15 minute charts are used in a similar way, but a candlestick like a spinning top or hammer will also provide entry when price heads 1 pip (incl. Spread) above or below in the desired direction.
I use the FXovereasy system as confirmation on all my trades, this is usually the final system to kick in and give a signal, from here I'm looking for add in points or possible exits if volatility drops or the SHI channel is going in the wrong direction in relation ot the trade direction
3. Exiting the trade (or taking partial profits)
This is exactly the same as my entries, but I'm looking for signals around TD price projections or Trend line support/resistance or EMA support resistance, pivots, price support/resistance, fibs. If the 'sky is the limit' to a trending trade I'll initially keep a stop above or below the previous hourly bar, as profit increases a stop under the previous days low (combined with 3 day rolling pivot analysis) will keep me in the trade while giving it enough room, especially when I'm not there to monitor it
4. Money management
Depending on the trade and the ACD values, and other factors mentioned here I'll use smaller amounts for trades I'm not so sure on, adding in as things improve or scale out or get out if things don't go my way. When things line up and nearly everything is in agreement i'll increase size, looking for early confirmation and another add in point. As these situation's aren't that common it makes sense to capitalise on them.
I use stop losses and these are usually put 2 pips above or below the previous point of resistance/support (opening range, pivot, price S and R) that caused the entry signal. I've also started using the ACD method for stops and time stops also and have noticed a decent improvement in profitability.
I suppose it looks quite complicated, but if it was easy everyone would be doing it. I'm fortunate that I've found something that works for me now, but in this job there's always room for improvement which is an ongoing process.
My trading education and tools.
To cut a very long story very short, it’s taken me about 8 months of 12 hour+ days to come up with a strategy that I’m comfortable with and fits my personality (which I found out is vastly different to what I thought it was – but that’s for another post.). Essentially I’m a day trader/position trader, which means I’m looking to take a trade for a few hours during the European session but am always looking to take on a longer term trade that will last from a few days up to a few months if possible. I’ve tried scalping and have a strategy for it, but find it too stressful. I use the strategy for my entries and exits now.
I’ve read a great deal in books and on the internet about other people’s strategies, but the only course I’ve actually purchased is Peter Bain’s at Forexmentor. For a beginner/intermediate trader it’s very good, but the real value lies in the subscription to his website, which is excellent and has some very knowledgeable traders on it. Peter also answers subscriber’s questions everyday in his daily video updates.
The ACD method by Mark Fisher is an excellent strategy that compiments any other strategy I've used or come across very nicely - it can be used on it's own or as confirmation signal for your own trade signals produced earlier than the ACD signal - if anything it gives rigid stop losses that save money in the long run. Mark Fishers book is called the The Logical trader.
There are a few other courses I’ve got my eye on like Soultraders ‘Hildabaker’ . but I’ll get on to them in time.
Phil Newton’s site trading-strategies is also very good, but over subscribed and not taking any more people at the moment.
Check out Joe Ross too at tradingeducators, he’s written excellent books and is also training others in spread trading now, which is where I’d like to go next in the trading world.
Moneytec is also a valuable resource for a trader.
Don’t forget WoodiesCCIclub either, this will give you a real insight into CCI and also your very own trading system if you choose it. Either way, I’ve incorporated Woodies paterns into my trading and have found them very reliable, especially on the 15 and 30 minute chart for day trading.
I’ve also learnt a lot along the way from other people’s blogs (see blogs section), some things I’ve taken on board and used, others don’t fit well with my style and others have shown agreement with my style. They’ve all helped me take the faltering steps to having my own style that I’m comfortable with.
I use Metatrader software for charting and trade using Deal4free UK spread betting platform. This is entirely due to their tight spreads, stable platform (in the most part) and no tax to pay on any winnings as it’s classed as betting, which carries no tax in the UK.
The hardest part to trading that I’ve found has been the psychological side. This has manifested itself in me in the form of over trading, getting out too soon, getting in too soon and setting stops too tight. Apart from the obvious technical mistakes like selling when it's a buy... the mistakes are getting less and less as the discipline rises.
'let every bird sing their own song' : chinese proverb
- Never a truer word said in relation to trading for a living.
I’ve read a great deal in books and on the internet about other people’s strategies, but the only course I’ve actually purchased is Peter Bain’s at Forexmentor. For a beginner/intermediate trader it’s very good, but the real value lies in the subscription to his website, which is excellent and has some very knowledgeable traders on it. Peter also answers subscriber’s questions everyday in his daily video updates.
The ACD method by Mark Fisher is an excellent strategy that compiments any other strategy I've used or come across very nicely - it can be used on it's own or as confirmation signal for your own trade signals produced earlier than the ACD signal - if anything it gives rigid stop losses that save money in the long run. Mark Fishers book is called the The Logical trader.
There are a few other courses I’ve got my eye on like Soultraders ‘Hildabaker’ . but I’ll get on to them in time.
Phil Newton’s site trading-strategies is also very good, but over subscribed and not taking any more people at the moment.
Check out Joe Ross too at tradingeducators, he’s written excellent books and is also training others in spread trading now, which is where I’d like to go next in the trading world.
Moneytec is also a valuable resource for a trader.
Don’t forget WoodiesCCIclub either, this will give you a real insight into CCI and also your very own trading system if you choose it. Either way, I’ve incorporated Woodies paterns into my trading and have found them very reliable, especially on the 15 and 30 minute chart for day trading.
I’ve also learnt a lot along the way from other people’s blogs (see blogs section), some things I’ve taken on board and used, others don’t fit well with my style and others have shown agreement with my style. They’ve all helped me take the faltering steps to having my own style that I’m comfortable with.
I use Metatrader software for charting and trade using Deal4free UK spread betting platform. This is entirely due to their tight spreads, stable platform (in the most part) and no tax to pay on any winnings as it’s classed as betting, which carries no tax in the UK.
The hardest part to trading that I’ve found has been the psychological side. This has manifested itself in me in the form of over trading, getting out too soon, getting in too soon and setting stops too tight. Apart from the obvious technical mistakes like selling when it's a buy... the mistakes are getting less and less as the discipline rises.
'let every bird sing their own song' : chinese proverb
- Never a truer word said in relation to trading for a living.
Wed 24th close
closed for +19 pips on the 15 min hammer and M2 acting as resistance. Not sure where it's going as we head into the US open, but I'm off to bed.
edit: - as I sit here price has broken the hammer and shot up to my predicted target of 17980 - should have taken half and left the rest. Lesson 4359845 learnt again.
edit: - as I sit here price has broken the hammer and shot up to my predicted target of 17980 - should have taken half and left the rest. Lesson 4359845 learnt again.
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
Wednesday 24/08/05 1st trade
Long cable 17929 at 10.15am London time. Stop and reverse 17899
Reasoning: had a correction from the recent high of 18170 7 days ago. Second daily 17EMA bounce in up trend. Price is at 4 hour support and 85EMA. Candlestick tweezer pattern at pivot and daily projected low with RSI divergence on the 15 min chart.
First target 17980 where half profit will be taken, then the rest moved to 17950 while we see what the technicals are saying. It's either the bottom of this correction and the bulls are back in charge, or the correction will continue to the 17850 area (38% fib), then onto 17750 (50% fib).
Reasoning: had a correction from the recent high of 18170 7 days ago. Second daily 17EMA bounce in up trend. Price is at 4 hour support and 85EMA. Candlestick tweezer pattern at pivot and daily projected low with RSI divergence on the 15 min chart.
First target 17980 where half profit will be taken, then the rest moved to 17950 while we see what the technicals are saying. It's either the bottom of this correction and the bulls are back in charge, or the correction will continue to the 17850 area (38% fib), then onto 17750 (50% fib).
This is the view from our house in Christchurch, New Zealand. We've just started renting this house which is pretty good! We've recently come over from the UK (Scotland) where I was working in IT in the wind and the rain.I'm now working again in IT over here but trade the London open mainly which starts at 7pm NZ time. I've been learning to trade for almost a year now, but as I'm still making silly mistakes by not following my strategy, this blog is to keep me on the straight and narrow where trading currencies is concerned.The journey and hardwork required to get a workable strategy and carry it out on every trade has been a hard one, but ultimately it's been enjoyable. I'll be updating trades here as they happen or soon after.
